The Sun Shines in South America: Colombia & Brazil Give Large Boost to Solar Deployment

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And Chile to Construct Kimal–Lo Aguirre HVDC Line to Cut back Curtailment

South America has a number of solar and a number of area, and photo voltaic vitality has grown from a small participant to the principle driver of era progress in a number of international locations within the area (making their already clear grids even cleaner). At this time we take a look at the grids of Chile, Brazil, and Colombia, all of which have already made photo voltaic a cornerstone of their era or are working to take action within the close to future.

Simply as with EV adoption, photovoltaic photo voltaic deployment varies significantly in South America: some international locations have simply began deploying it, whereas others have made it a core a part of their methods for almost a decade. However all (or at the very least most) are advancing quickly in the direction of its large deployment. Chile is the principle participant within the area so far as photo voltaic goes, so we are going to begin with its newest mega-project: the Kimal-Lo Aguirre HVDC line.

Chile to construct 1,350 km Kimal–Lo Aguirre HVDC transmission line, the third one on the continent

Chile’s historical past with photovoltaic photo voltaic era began again in 2013, when the primary 8 MW had been put in. Due to authorities help, this quantity rose shortly, surpassing 1 GW (1000 MW) in 2016 and reaching a formidable 9.3 GW in 2023! One other 4 GW are anticipated to be deployed in 2024.

Presently, photo voltaic era accounts for 27% of Chile’s complete nominal capability, and due to its sunny nature, it accounted for 19% of the 83,600 GWh of electrical energy generated by 2023. This was additionally the primary 12 months that Chile’s renewable era (photo voltaic + hydro + wind) surpassed all fossil gasoline era.

As a result of pace of photo voltaic PV deployment and the actual geography of the nation (with most photo voltaic assets positioned within the desert north), Chile is at a crossroad. It’s shedding a number of vitality within the sunniest portion of the day as a result of the grid is not in a position to transport the quantity of electrical energy being produced, and but, it’s deploying much more photo voltaic era within the years to return. To unravel this, the federal government determined to construct the primary high-voltage direct present (HVDC) transmission line on the continent outdoors of Brazil: the 1,350 km lengthy Kimal–Lo Aguirre Line, which is anticipated to be on-line by 2029.

Photo voltaic and wind deployment are rising, and Chile began taking storage severely in 2022 (with 3,000 MWh deliberate by the tip of 2024), so it’s anticipated that by the point this line is accomplished, the big majority of fossil gasoline era — if not all — will go offline.

Brazil’s photo voltaic investments speed up, anticipating to succeed in 25% of era capability in late 2024

Brazil instructions the most important era capability in the entire area: almost 200 GW. However the shocking factor is that this can be a almost fully clear grid, with renewable era accounting for 85% of this capability! Hydroelectric era is dominant, however photo voltaic and wind have grown quickly and biomass stays a big supply as nicely.

(This implies an EV in Brazil will make an outsized impression in emissions. Good factor the market is booming!).

The nation is a regional juggernaut, however even accounting for its dimension, its place worldwide relating to photo voltaic deployment is spectacular. Globally, Brazil has the sixth most photo voltaic vitality deployed in complete (37 GW), and the fourth most deployed in 2023 (12 GW), solely behind the US, Germany, and China. By 2024, it’s anticipated that one other 8 GW shall be added, reaching 45 GW, or almost 20% of the nation’s complete era capability!

Over 100 GW of capability will begin building within the following years, however there’s no exact data on when that capability will come on-line. What we all know for positive is that at this level, Brazil will not be too removed from 100% renewable era, and as photo voltaic costs come down, deployment ought to speed up much more.

Brazil already has two operational HVDC traces (the one ones within the continent till Chile’s Kimal–Lo Aguirre is completed), so it ought to have the ability to construct the infrastructure to move low-cost photo voltaic vitality from the sunny heart of the nation to the populated south and southeast.

Colombia’s vitality public sale finally ends up with photo voltaic PV gaining 99% of era

Colombia’s geography is a paradise of excessive mountains and steep slopes, a curse and a blessing that has made the nation extremely depending on hydroelectric era. For the previous few many years, each time there’s been a drought due to El Niño (a climatic phenomenon that causes increased rains in Peru and Ecuador, and decrease in Colombia and Panama), the nation has been close to a blackout, however none has really materialized after those that occurred in 1992.

As a way to take care of the chance of blackouts, the Colombian authorities has created a system of “dependable” thermal era that’s solely used to ensure sufficient water through the dry season. This is the reason, not like most different international locations, thermal era vegetation have very low capability elements and usually quantity for lower than 20% of complete era regardless of being almost 30% of the put in capability.

Now, this “dependable” system is predicated upon vitality auctions, carried out each two years on common, and ever for the reason that 2019 public sale, photo voltaic PV (and to a lesser diploma wind) has began to extend in significance, successful 99% of all vitality auctioned within the newest one! (That was February 2024.) To be clear, this can be a free market atmosphere the place photo voltaic has been making inroads thanks primarily to its low costs.

Now, not like Chile and Brazil, Colombia is a latecomer to photo voltaic vitality, with solely 9 MW deployed previous to 2019. Photo voltaic deployment was delayed through the pandemic, amounting to solely 700 MW (cumulative) final month, however the auctioned farms are nonetheless being constructed and anticipated to return on-line in three years at most.

Simply as with the car market, Colombia’s grid is minuscule for a rustic its dimension (most likely resulting from many of the inhabitants not needing AC): solely 17.8 GW of era capability is at the moment obtainable within the nation, and wind vitality, regardless of giant tasks being constructed, is principally non-existent for now:

Regardless of its capability being solely half of Chile’s, Colombia did handle to generate almost as a lot vitality as Chile did in 2023: 80.6 GWh, 77% of which was renewable. Usually it could’ve been increased, however within the second half of the 12 months, fossil gasoline era ramped up as a result of impending drought.

As of April 2024, photo voltaic era accounts for some 6% of electrical energy, however as a result of “dependable energy auctions” I discussed earlier, capability is anticipated to extend eightfold within the subsequent three years. Massive wind tasks are additionally anticipated to return on-line within the following years (although licensing has been a lot tougher for them), and it’s anticipated most era ought to turn into renewable by the tip of the last decade, even when fossil gasoline vegetation are saved as a part of era capability. Nonetheless, there have been latest feedback relating to the unreliability of photo voltaic and the necessity to public sale extra vitality to thermal era “just in case”… as a result of, after all, storage doesn’t exist and might by no means be used in its place, proper?

Oh, and BTW, I did some fast math and I’m all however sure that if all photo voltaic vitality being deployed was on-line right now, the nation would’ve been in a position to take care of the drought with 90% or so much less fossil gasoline.

The solar shines in South America

By and enormous, South American international locations are comparatively sunny, comparatively sparsely populated, and comparatively steady, in order photo voltaic costs come down, anticipate photo voltaic deployments to extend dramatically even in international locations that — for now — have been laggards on this transition. And with photo voltaic coming in, fossil fuels will begin to exit.

Challenges will come up, after all, however I stay optimistic. Storage is getting cheaper (and that solves many of the points), and South American international locations are closely reliant on hydroelectric energy, which will be simply ramped up and down and — as such — stands as an honest complement to photo voltaic and wind energy. Uruguay is already absolutely renewable electricity-wise, and by 2030, I consider there shall be extra South American international locations becoming a member of this unique membership. What do you guys assume?