Elon Musk Expects Tesla Vehicle Sales Growth In 2024

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One of many large surprises this 12 months to this point was Tesla’s Q1 gross sales dropping 12 months over 12 months. Tesla stated for a very long time its purpose was 50% progress 12 months over 12 months. Sure, Elon Musk and crew additionally certified that to say it wasn’t anticipated to be regular progress and a few years could be up greater than others. However adverse progress is a far method away from 50% progress.

Together with the drop in gross sales, Elon Musk stated just a few months in the past that Tesla wasn’t going to present any steering on what they anticipate in 2024. That’s proper — breaking from custom, it was as much as everybody else to guess what number of autos Tesla hoped to promote in 2024. Unsurprisingly, that didn’t sit tremendous effectively with the funding neighborhood and some huge cash left the inventory.

On in the present day’s Tesla convention name relating to 1st quarter numbers, based mostly on the Q1 efficiency, Musk was requested if Tesla gross sales would drop in all of 2024 12 months over 12 months. He responded that, no, they do anticipate gross sales progress. That was the extent of it, although. We didn’t get any particular quantity Tesla is focusing on or anticipating.

Although, a little bit extra was stated about why gross sales had been down within the 1st quarter. “We experienced numerous challenges in Q1, from the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin, to the gradual ramp of the updated Model 3 in Fremont,” the Tesla shareholder letter acknowledged. These issues had been additionally talked about on the convention name, together with feedback about manufacturing being considerably higher than deliveries because of what are basically logistics points and that there was demand for sure fashions in some areas the place Tesla couldn’t get them whereas these fashions had been in oversupply elsewhere.

There’s additionally the matter of gross sales being down in China, and Musk commented that Tesla’s opponents’ gross sales had been down extra, however there was no dialogue as to why gross sales would go up once more in China. “Production at Gigafactory Shanghai was down sequentially due to seasonality and planned shutdowns around Chinese New Year in Q1. Demand typically improves throughout the year,” Tesla writes. However the Chinese language New 12 months was within the first quarter final 12 months, too. “As we enter new markets, such as Chile, many of them will be supplied from Gigafactory Shanghai,” the corporate added.

General, this graph captures modifications in Tesla’s market share by main market area:

As you may see, Tesla’s market share was down in every single place — barely down, however down nonetheless. And, truly, it was within the US and Canada the place it was down probably the most. On that matter, Tesla writes, “Model 3 production in Fremont was down sequentially as we changed the production line to the updated model. Sequentially, Model Y production at Gigafactory Texas increased to an all-time high, while COGS per unit improved to an all-time low.”

Then there’s Europe. Right here’s Tesla’s brief rationalization for why gross sales had been down in Europe: “Model Y production in Berlin was down sequentially due to impacts from the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack that impacted the factory. Despite idle capacity charges and other costs from production disruptions, COGS per unit continued to decline sequentially.” So, there’s that.

On the shareholder convention name in the present day, the executives talked about a few occasions the way it was simply “one thing after another” and an ideal storm of assorted points around the globe that damage Tesla’s gross sales.

There have been different indicators that there’s extra happening than all that. There have been a number of value cuts, there’s been far more advertising and promoting, after which there have been after all the entire layoffs. There’s additionally been some analysis on the market on some parts of the general public shedding curiosity in Tesla autos. However the official phrase for now’s that Q1 gross sales suffered because of a bunch of logistics points and that 2024 gross sales ought to be greater than 2023 gross sales — that’s the expectation at Tesla, no less than. What do you suppose?