Tesla Cybertruck Might Already Be Passing Ford F-150 Lightning & Rivian R1T — Truck Wars Over?

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I wrote a few days in the past that Tesla produced 1,000 Cybertrucks one week last month. It’s a notable milestone, but when that was the output each week this yr, that may nonetheless simply be slightly greater than 50,000 vehicles. Although, a reader pointed one thing out I hadn’t caught — at 1,000 items per week, it’s in all probability already beating the Ford F-150 Lightning. It’s additionally already beating the Rivian R1T.

We’ll have to attend for Q2 numbers to return in, and there have been some issues not too long ago — Ford paused manufacturing of the F-150 Lightning for a bit, and Tesla paused manufacturing of the Cybertruck whereas coping with an accelerator pedal recall. Nevertheless, current numbers do present some issues to think about.

Within the 4th quarter of 2023, Ford bought 11,905 items of the F-150 Lightning. Within the 1st quarter of this yr, although, the whole was 7,743 Lightnings. Naturally, with about 13 weeks in 1 / 4, if Tesla will get to a median of 1,000 Cybertrucks per week, that’s 13,000 in 1 / 4. With Tesla saying that Cybertruck manufacturing capability is slowly however steadily ramping up, a median of 1,000 items per week within the 2nd quarter appears very doable.

After all, Ford may additionally ramp up manufacturing and gross sales of the F-150 Lightning. Although, with the drop from the 4th quarter to the first quarter and Ford CEO Jim Farley not too long ago speaking about challenges promoting as many EVs as they needed, that appears unlikely. A hopeful goal would possibly simply be reaching that This fall determine once more. After all, I’ve a lot greater hopes for the Ford F-150 Lightning resulting from all of its advantages over a standard Ford F-150 and the way standard that mannequin is, however apparently there are nonetheless important struggles breaking by to traditional truck consumers.

As for the Cybertruck, I assume it is going to get ramped as much as nicely past 1,000 items per week, and maybe even to 2,000 items per week by summer season, so I anticipate it is going to take the lead within the 2nd quarter. General, like a reader, John Donovanstated, I’m guessing Tesla will promote round 100,000 Cybertrucks this yr. Based on Tesla’s shareholder letter revealed this week, based mostly on the manufacturing tools in place, they anticipate that they’ve manufacturing capability for >125,000 Cybertrucks a yr in the mean time (all on the gigafactory in Texas). That doesn’t imply they’re able to produce that many in a yr, after all — simply that the manufacturing tools and house are there. Elon Musk beforehand forecasted demand for about 150,000 Cybertrucks a yr. We’ll see, however Tesla could also be nicely on its method to that focus on by the tip of 2024.

So far as a forecast for the Ford F-150 Lightning or Rivian R1T? It’s very laborious to guess. However I believe it’s very possible the Cybertruck wins the “electric truck wars” this yr, and it’s laborious to inform when Ford’s prospects and executives or Rivian’s prospects and executives will have the ability to carry gross sales as much as 100,000+ a yr. Hopefully quickly!