At last, Australia has fuel efficiency standards—but they’re weaker than they could have been

After many years of debate and no motion, Australia’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard has lastly passed federal parliament. It’ll apply to new vehicles offered from July subsequent yr.

Setting a regular guarantees to chop transport emissions and ship us additional down the street to web zero by 2050.

However the lengthy delay means we’re ranging from the again of the pack. Australian passenger autos presently emit at least 50% more CO₂ than the worldwide common. Emissions have been getting worse, not higher.

Our new peer-reviewed and independent expert studycarried out by the Transport Energy/Emission Research consultancy, examines the inside workings of the brand new commonplace. We fed publicly obtainable information into our mannequin to search out out whether or not the brand new commonplace will work as supposed.

We discovered the brand new commonplace might considerably cut back lifetime emissions from mild autos (vehicles, SUVs, utes and vans) offered in Australia from July 1 2025. But it surely was weakened by the adjustments made following a second spherical of session with business. Sadly, the usual’s efficiency may very well be additional undermined by the dangers forward.

How does the New Automobile Effectivity Customary work?

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard units more and more stringent targets for CO₂ exhaust emissions for brand spanking new mild autos offered between July 2025 and December 2029. Particular guidelines and design parameters collectively decide the scope and stringency of the usual.

Importantly, the usual does nothing to control emissions from autos already on the street and people bought earlier than July 1 2025. These autos will likely be on the street for a few years to come back.

However the usual’s means to truly cut back emissions is determined by its design. The satan is within the element. Let’s take a more in-depth look.

Exploring design choices

The federal authorities experimented with completely different designs and consulted business and the broader group earlier than reporting again on design choices.

In February the federal government outlined three choices: Possibility A (gradual begin); Possibility B (quick begin and versatile); and Possibility C (quick begin). Center-of-the-road Possibility B was most popular, balancing “ambition and achievability.”

After additional session, an updated report adopted in March with adjustments to Possibility B. Particular giant SUVs had been moved throughout to the extra lenient mild business car commonplace, which additionally turned much less stringent. Draft legislation was tabled the next day.

What we did

Though the federal government experiences present some helpful info, there may be inadequate element to totally perceive how the possible emission reductions had been assessed.

So in our new researchwe developed a software to calculate adjustments in on-road exhaust CO₂ emissions for all 5 future car mannequin years (2025 to 2029) over their lifetime, utilizing information for mannequin yr 2022.

We in contrast these outcomes with a baseline situation, which displays the anticipated uptake of battery electrical autos within the absence of the brand new commonplace.

Within the European Union, emissions and gross sales information are publicly and freely available within the pursuits of transparency and accountability. This isn’t the case in Australia, the place the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries controls entry to the information.

To get round this, we extracted info from the most recent National Transport Commission reportin addition to information from different on-line sources.

We mixed car gross sales and formally reported emissions efficiency information for Australian mild autos (vehicles, SUVs, utes and vans) by make and mannequin, with different required info, resembling estimates of car weight.

Lastly, we thought of the vary of measures producers could take to scale back emissions from their new autos, resembling switching to electrical or hybrid fashions or downsizing their combustion engines, to fulfill their emissions targets.

What we discovered

Our research estimates the New Automobile Effectivity Customary will considerably cut back on-road lifetime CO₂ emissions for brand spanking new autos bought between 2025 and 2029.

We calculated the brand new commonplace would save 87 million tons of real-world CO₂ emissions. Compared, the unique “Option B” model of the usual would have saved 103 million tons.

In contrast with having no gasoline effectivity requirements in any respect, we discovered the brand new commonplace would scale back emissions by simply 2% for mannequin yr 2025 autos. But it surely ramps as much as 51% for autos offered in 2029.

The ultimate design of the usual is weaker than the initially proposed Possibility B, which might have lower emissions by about 6% for mannequin yr 2025, growing to 58% for mannequin yr 2029.

The brand new commonplace additionally permits producers to create and commerce emission credit. Which means that if a sure producer is overachieving and decreasing emissions sooner than they should, they’ll carry over credit to a different mannequin yr for a sure interval, or promote them to an underachieving producer.

Watch out for future dangers

Some options of the New Automobile Effectivity Customary might undermine its effectiveness.

To really cut back emissions, the usual should seize on-road gasoline consumption and emissions as intently as potential. Sadly, the brand new commonplace remains to be primarily based on an outdated check developed within the Nineteen Seventies that considerably underestimates gasoline consumption and emissions. The federal government intends to replace the test protocol and align with worldwide finest observe, however suggests waiting till no less than mid-2028.

There’s additionally a threat the brand new commonplace design will additional encourage the development in the direction of giant heavy passenger autos, making it even tougher to scale back emissions from street transport. Producers’ emission efficiency targets (in grams of CO₂ per kilometer) are strongly decided by the common weight of their fleet, particularly in the Australian standard. This implies a fleet filled with heavy SUVs can have a better emissions allowance, thereby making the necessities probably much less stringent for producers that select to give attention to giant fashions.

Are we there but?

Australia’s New Automobile Effectivity Customary is a step in the best route. But when we’re critical about hitting the web zero goal for street transport, the brand new commonplace should be supported by a variety of other policies. These embrace public consciousness campaigns selling a shift away from polluting modes of transport in the direction of mild and low emission autos.

The effectiveness of the brand new commonplace in truly decreasing on-road emissions for brand spanking new autos stays to be seen.

Some enhancements are essential to make the usual extra sturdy, higher assure its effectiveness and stop the internationally well-known pitfalls and loopholes in vehicle emission requirements. They embrace adoption of an up-to-date check protocol and together with on-board gasoline consumption monitoring, as is finished abroad.

We have narrowly averted being the final developed nation with out necessary emission requirements. Russia can now declare that title. However our analysis exhibits the brand new commonplace is kind of a distance from the world’s finest. No, sadly, we’re not there but.

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