Calculations predict that a large proportion of trucks in Denmark will run on electricity within the next 10 years

The transition to electrical automobiles is nicely underway. On the flip of the yr, Denmark reached 200,000 registered electrical automobiles, and final yr electrical automobiles accounted for 36% of all newly registered automobiles. Nevertheless, the determine is sort of completely different for electrical vans.

Electrical vans solely make up about 1% of the full truck fleet in Denmark. Nevertheless, based on new calculations, this determine will quickly change considerably. The truth is, calculations predict that the transition from fossil gasoline vans to electric trucks will overtake the transition for passenger automobiles in Denmark.

“In all the scenarios we have calculated, it appears that the transition from diesel to electric trucks will overtake the transition from fossil fuel cars to electric cars. We have tested different scenarios, and they all indicate that the percentage of trucks running on electricity will be much higher than that for passenger cars within the next 10 years,” says Jeppe Wealthy, Professor at DTU Administration, who along with Assistant Professor Ahmed Karam have made the calculations.

In the event you take a look at the local weather figures, the transition can be important. On EU roads, heavy autos weighing greater than 12 metric tons account for greater than 25% of greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason the European Fee has launched stricter CO₂ emission requirements for heavy-duty autos, aiming for a discount of 45% by 2030 and 90% by 2040, in comparison with 2019 ranges.

It’s exactly the heavy autos on which DTU Administration’s calculations are primarily based. Extra particularly, semi-trailer vans—vans weighing greater than 12 metric tons with one trailer hooked up—that transport items inside Denmark. Semi-trailer vans make up about 33% of vans in Denmark, however account for about 67% of the kilometers pushed.

“Specifically, we have looked at a line haul network, where trucks transport goods from one warehouse to another before smaller vehicles pick up the goods and bring them to the cities. These are the trucks that the calculations predict will all run on electricity by 2035,” says Jeppe Wealthy

Amongst different organizations, the Inexperienced Transition Denmark (Rådet for Grøn Omstilling) additionally predicts a serious transition, and estimates that about half of the vans in Denmark will run on electrical energy in 2035, whereas the Danish Power Company solely expects that a couple of fifth of the vans will run on electrical energy by then.

Difficult equation

The calculations are primarily based on a number of elements that may affect the pace of the transition.

One of many political facets that might have an effect is the brand new street prices and tolls that may enter into drive in 2025. Vehicles weighing greater than 12 metric tons will from 2025 need to pay tolls based on their mileage in Denmark. The toll can be differentiated based on the vans’ CO₂ emissions, which signifies that inexperienced vans must pay the least.

“The speed of the transition depends, among other things, on whether there will be enough fast chargers and better batteries, truck prices, and the political aspects in the form of charges. If we imagine that the development goes as planned with the upcoming taxes and fast chargers, we believe that a full transition to electric is possible within the next ten years. However, this will require investment in the industry,” says Ahmed Karam.

Along with the financial savings by going inexperienced on the roads, new charging parks may also encourage the trade to run on electrical energy. In Denmark, virtually DKK 700 million is being invested in a roll-out plan, which incorporates the institution of 25 charging parks with 175 fast-charging stations. In keeping with the plan, the primary 5 charging parks will open in 2025, whereas the remaining 20 can be established constantly till 2030.

Is the trade prepared?

Regardless of the numerous incentives for the transition, it in the beginning requires that corporations themselves prioritize electrical vans over the fossil ones.

“We have had conversations with several stakeholders in the industry who confirm that the development trends towards electric trucks. But we have also talked to others who are more conservative and just need to see if the new trucks will be able to work in practice. What is certain, however, is that they feel pressure from their business partners who want CO₂-free shipping. So, of course, it’s a question of price and competitiveness. Looking at the numbers, it appears that truck battery prices will fall, which will make the trucks more financially attractive,” says Jeppe Wealthy.

Elsewhere at DTU, different options are being developed to prepare electrical energy manufacturing, so it will probably meet the growing charging wants. That is finished by way of the EU innovation challenge Begonia, which along with corporations within the trade is new options.

“The companies running large parcel centers state that the smaller trucks transporting the goods the final kilometers in the cities will be the first to transition to electricity. I’m not so sure that things will be as rapid for large trucks, where I sense a certain skepticism from hauliers. But as batteries improve, the large trucks will also run on electricity at some point,” says Henrik Madsen, Professor at DTU Compute, who’s engaged on the Begonia challenge.