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Bernreuter Analysis: Low module value will gasoline demand within the second half of the 12 months
Würzburg, Germany — International photovoltaic (PV) installations will land in a spread of 600 to 660 gigawatts-direct present (GWdc) in 2024, in keeping with the most recent evaluation from polysilicon market skilled Bernreuter Analysis. “Once market participants come to the conclusion that the crash of the solar module price has reached its bottom, demand will accelerate,” says Johannes Bernreuter, Head of Bernreuter Analysis and writer of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report.
Prime 6 photo voltaic module suppliers goal for 40% development fee
Bernreuter’s new forecast is supported by the cargo targets of the world’s prime six photo voltaic module suppliers for 2024. On common, Jinko, Longi, Trina, JA Photo voltaic, Tongwei and Canadian Photo voltaic goal for a development fee of 40%. Based mostly on international PV installations of 444 GWdc in 2023, this fee would lead to a newly put in capability of 622 GWdc in 2024.
“Even if the leading players gain market share as Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers struggle in the current low-price environment, it is likely that new PV installations will exceed 600 GWdc this year,” says Bernreuter. After a lot of the prime six suppliers remained behind their cargo objectives in 2023, the analyst assumes that they’ve been extra cautious with their targets for 2024, which leaves room for upside potential.
Indicators on the provision aspect level to a spread of 630 GWdc to 660 GWdc
“On the supply side, all indicators point to the upper half of our forecast range,” explains Bernreuter. “I am optimistic that demand will catch up in the second half of the year, fueled by the record-low module price level.”
International PV installations of 630 GWdc to 660 GWdc would even prime the excessive situation of 620 GWdc featured in Bernreuter’s Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report. “Our new analysis confirms the more aggressive forecast approach we have adopted in the report,” concludes Bernreuter. “With a market share of more than 50%, China will continue to drive global PV installations forward.”
About Bernreuter Analysis — Bernreuter Analysis was based in 2008 by Johannes Bernreuter, one of the crucial respected photovoltaic journalists in Germany, to publish international polysilicon market studies. As early as 2001, Bernreuter authored his first evaluation of an upcoming polysilicon bottleneck and new manufacturing processes. Since publishing its first report in 2010, Bernreuter Analysis has gained a status for offering essentially the most complete and correct polysilicon studies in the marketplace.
Press launch from Bernreuter Research.
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