The Regional Electricity Crisis Should Be Higher Up On The Agenda For Southern African Heads of Government: Part 2

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There was a giant summit for the Southern African Growth Group (SADC) over the previous weekend in Harare, Zimbabwe. It was the 44^th version of this summit, with heads of state for 13 out of the 16 member states attending.

The SADC website states “The mission of SADC is to promote sustainable and equitable economic growth and socio-economic development through efficient, productive systems, deeper cooperation and integrationgood governance and durable peace and security; so that the region emerges as a competitive and effective player in international relations and the world economy.”

This imaginative and prescient of sustainable and equitable financial progress will likely be hampered by the area’s dire electrical energy state of affairs. In Half 2 of this collection, we are going to check out the present state of electrical energy provide for these residents which can be linked to the respective member states’ nationwide grids. Right here we are going to concentrate on numerous international locations that face perennial electrical energy rationing, infamously referred to as load-shedding. For a have a look at the present stage of entry to electrical energy, or slightly a have a look at the share of residents that aren’t linked to the nationwide grids of SADC member States, you could find Part 1 of this series here.

12 international locations in Southern Africa are a part of the Southern African Energy Pool (SAPP). The SAPP is essentially the most lively energy pool in Africa. The entire put in era capability within the area is 80 GW. The height demand within the area is 57 GW, nevertheless, the obtainable capability is just 48 GW in response to the figures from the SAPP, leaving an enormous electrical energy era shortfall. Absolutely which means there needs to be some urgency round fixing this large era shortfall.

Probably the most affected member states are South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, the place residents face common electrical energy rationing cycles referred to as load-shedding. The electrical energy era combine within the Southern African Energy Pool is dominated by coal. Coal’s share is at 59% (principally from South Africa and locations like Zimbabwe), adopted by hydro at 24%, photo voltaic PV at 4%, distillate at 3.8%,  then wind and nuclear (South Africa) at 3%, and open cycle gasoline generators at 2%.

9 international locations are at the moment interconnected on the transmission stage, with 3 international locations not but linked to the SAPP grid. Malawi is linked via the Mozambique – Malawi Interconnector and Tanzania is being linked via the Zambia – Tanzania Interconnector, which can result in interconnection of SAPP and the East African Energy Pool as Tanzania can also be being linked to Kenya. Angola will likely be linked to Namibia, DRC, and Zambia.

A have a look at the era and demand information reveals that there’s an pressing have to speed up new interconnections in addition to increase present interconnection capability to facilitate growth of regional commerce. There are some plans round this, and one would assume these needs to be larger up the agenda for these sorts of summits, however it doesn’t appear to be the case.

The persistent load-shedding points plaguing South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe may very well be solved by unlocking the total potential of the Southern African Energy Pool in addition to the East African Energy Pool as soon as it’s totally activated. That is why it’s vital to prioritize and speed up deliberate interconnections between Tanzania and Zambia in addition to Angola’s to Namibia, DRC, and Zambia.

Taking a look at desk beneath from SAPP, Angola had an extra capability of round 2.4 GW. A few of this may very well be taken up by different members of the SAPP as required to alleviate a number of the shortfalls.

South Africa appears to be getting round to addressing the era shortfall. Eskom lately introduced 4 months of uninterrupted energy provide since 26 March 2024, together with 87 days of fixed provide all through the winter interval. The suspension of load-shedding in South Africa has introduced some aid to properties and enterprise that have been going through spiraling prices from utilizing various sources corresponding to diesel backup turbines. Eskom reached one other important milestone on 23 July 2024 by attaining 35,000 MW of accessible capability, with a night peak demand of 30,740 MW. This stage of accessible capability has not been seen for six years, particularly since 16 July 2018. This achievement is attributed to diminished unplanned outages, which have dropped to 9,238 MW. Moreover, Eskom achieved a median Vitality Availability Issue (EAF) of 70% over the previous seven days.

Eskom provides that its “Generation Recovery Plan” continues to ship efficiencies, with an approximate R9.09 billion discount in Open-Cycle Fuel Generators (OCGTs) diesel expenditure from 1 April 2024 to 25 July 2024, in comparison with the identical interval final yr. Eskom had been spending some huge cash on diesel. It’s good to see that rooftop photo voltaic is beginning to contribute a substantial portion of South Africa’s electrical energy era combine throughout daytime hours.

The state of affairs isn’t so good for Zimbabwe and Zambia. Zimbabwe and Zambia share the Kariba Dam. The Kariba Dam was constructed between 1955 and 1959 and extends for about 280 km. It holds about 185km³ of water. On the Zimbabwe facet (Kariba South), the hydropower plant now has an put in era capability of 1,050 MW. On the Zambian facet (Kariba North), there may be now an put in era capability of 1,080 MW, so due to this fact the dam has a mixed capability of two,130 MW. The dam is a significant vacationer attraction for the nation, second solely to Victoria Falls. Lake Kariba can also be now dwelling to the world’s most productive reservoir fisheryand due to this fact a supply of employment for the artisanal fishing business.

The large downside is that there’s a critical drought at the moment affecting numerous international locations in southern Africa. Some reviews say that is the worst drought in over 100 years. The issue is that these droughts have gotten too frequent and rising in severity. The Kariba Dam’s water ranges are extraordinarily low in the intervening time on account of these droughts, as illustrated beneath:

The low ranges have compelled the Zambezi River Authority to limit electrical energy era from Kariba Dam. Zimbabwe now has an put in capability of about 2,500 MW. Nevertheless, because of the low water ranges in Kariba, ZPC, the nationwide electrical energy era firm, has been compelled to scale back era at Kariba to solely 215MW out of 1,050MW! Together with depressed era at some previous coal energy crops, the full era capability has been hovering at round 1,300MW. With demand reaching near 2,000 MW, Zimbabwe has been compelled to implement extreme electrical energy rationing cycles, which imply most residents don’t have electrical energy from about 6am to 9pm day by day.

In Zambia, the put in nationwide era capability stands at round 3,500 MW in comparison with a peak nationwide demand of roughly 2,300MW. Nevertheless, attributable to restricted era at Kariba North in addition to different crops being out for scheduled upkeep, obtainable era capability is hovering round 890MW, forcing the utility firm to extend load-shedding to 17 hours a day!

If the area’s leaders have been taking note of international developments, they might know that there has by no means been a greater time to do that. Numerous progress has been made within the photo voltaic and stationary power storage segments with rising market shares in lots of international locations within the developed world. The unbelievable ramp-up of manufacturing capability in these sectors, in addition to technological developments over the previous decade, helped unlock efficiencies in key areas, leading to unbelievable worth drops in the price of manufacturing of all of the important elements. This has resulted in shoppers now accessing photo voltaic panels and batteries at costs decrease than ever.

Photo voltaic panel costs are so low now that we now hear reviews that it’s cheaper to buy solar panels and use them to construct fences in some places in Europe than to use traditional fencing material! A fence that additionally generates clear electrical energy — how cool is that? You realize what could be cooler? Utilizing all this PV and battery storage to energy distributed microgrids utilizing a whole lot of hundreds of rooftops and carparks throughout these international locations to enhance the availability from present utility-scale era crops. The drastic drop in costs of photo voltaic panels and batteries imply that loads much less cash is required to set all this up now in all these international locations than ever earlier than.

South Africa confirmed us simply how rapidly new era capability may be added from rooftop photo voltaic. South African properties and companies have added 3,526 MW of rooftop photo voltaic in simply two years! It’s simply great to see how briskly electrical energy era capability may be added from rooftop photo voltaic. In line with information from Eskom, there have been about 2,264.5 MW of rooftop photo voltaic PV put in in South Africa as of July 2022. In line with Eskom’s newest replace, South African properties and companies have now put in 5,790.5 MW of photo voltaic PV.

Different sources may be thought of as properly so as to add to the era mixture of SADC member international locations. We simply want the regional leaders to point out a bit extra urgency. Here is a abstract of the outcomes of the Summit. Doesn’t seem like there was a transparent and pressing name to handle the electrical energy disaster. All the different themes from the summit, corresponding to “Promoting Innovation to Unlock Opportunities for Sustainable Economic Growth and Development towards an Industrialised SADC,” must be backed up by a steady electrical energy setting. For SADC to industrialize, it should prioritize fixing this electrical energy disaster.