Is British Columbia Looking at a Black Swan Event? The Complete Stupidity of BC Politics & the Carbon Tax.

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First, in keeping with Wikipedia, a black swan event is a high-impact occasion that’s tough to foretell below regular circumstances however on reflection seems to have been inevitable, or an occasion that comes as a shock, has a serious affect, and is usually rationalized with the good thing about hindsight as having been unavoidable.

Now, to the British Columbia (BC) carbon tax, and its historical past and BC politics. The BC Liberalsa centre-right celebration that was in energy in BC from 2001 to 2017, launched North America’s first carbon tax in 2008. In 2009, we had a provincial election, and the New Democratic PartyNDP, a centre-left celebration, ran on a slogan “Axe the Tax,” however the Liberals retained energy.

After the 2017 election, the Liberals dropped to 43 sears and the NDP had 41, however with the Inexperienced Occasion of BC, or BC Greensa extra folks and environmental celebration, including their 3 seats, the NDP was in a position to type authorities. In late 2020, the NDP referred to as an early election and gained a majority.

Now, we’ve the upcoming 2024 election on October 19. We’ve got the BC Liberals, renamed as BC United (a flop), the NDP, Greens, and others, with no seats.

On August 18, 2022, BC Liberal member Jon Rustad, elected as a member in 2005, was kicked out of their caucus by chief Kevin Falcon as a result of questioning the science of local weather change. In February 2023, the BC Liberals modified their title to BC United. On February 16, 2023, John Rustad crossed the ground and have become a member of the BC Conservatives, who had been with out a seat — ever — and have become the chief of the BC Conservatives on March, 31, 2023. A sitting BC United member crossed the ground to the BC Conservatives on September 23, 2023, with others quickly following. BC United suspended their marketing campaign on August 28, 2024, and urged it members to vote for the BC Conservatives.

However in BC, a political celebration has to run no less than one or now two candidates to remain “valid” — even when these candidates get just one vote every, the celebration continues to be lively. As of 2024, BC has 14 political events, together with one with the title “Party of Citizens” — full title, “Party of Citizens Who Have Decided To Think For Ourselves & Be Our Own Politicians.” Extra data about BC politics, on the constructive aspect: From 1871 to 1903, all premiers had been non-partisan. After 1903, the governments switched again and fourth, between Conservatives, Liberals, Social Credit score, NDP — all majority governments besides in 1952 and 2017. However as for independents, BC has an extended historical past. Provincially, the primary one elected was Mary Ellen Smith in 1918. Sure, in 1918! The final one was Vicki Huntington, elected in 2009 and re-elected in 2013.

Federally, we had Chuck Cadman, a previous conservative member, however re-elected as an unbiased in 2004. And naturally Jody Wilson-Raybold, a previous Liberal member and Legal professional Basic for Canada, re-elected as unbiased in 2019. A quantity if former BC Liberals/BC United members are at the moment working as independents or unattached. If a couple of get elected, that would imply a number of independents or unattached may maintain the steadiness of energy. That has by no means occurred earlier than in BC. Would that be a black swan occasion?

Now, let’s get to our carbon tax, a air pollution charge that was launched by a considerably conservative authorities, the BC Liberals, below their chief Gordon Campbell in 2008. The tax began at solely $10 per ton of CO2 emitted and elevated by $5 per ton every year till it reached $30 per ton in 2012. It stayed at that charge till 2017 after which elevated once more, by $5 per ton/yr till 2022. In 2022, the speed elevated to $15/ton/yr, and is at the moment at $ 85/ton since April. It had been income impartial till 2017, that means each enhance was offset by rebates to customers or tax reductions. However when the NDP got here to energy in 2017, they modified that, and final yr the tax produced income of over $2.5 billion however solely about one billion was rebated, leaving each particular person of the simply over 5 million folks in BC with $ 300 much less, or for each working, taxpaying particular person, about half of the inhabitants, with $600 much less. The tax didn’t hurt the financial system and decreased emissions, in keeping with numerous research.

Now why would I contemplate a few of these issues a possible black swan occasion?

Properly, to begin with, the NDP modified the regulation and eliminated the income neutrality in 2017, their first yr in workplace. Then, we had the actions by Mr. Falcon relating to Mr. Rustad, eradicating him from caucus, as a result of his local weather denier stance. Mr. Falcon would have by no means thought in his wildest desires, or nightmares, that about two years later, his celebration, the previous BC Liberals, now BC United, would take away themselves from the present election cycle as a result of rise of BC Conservatives within the polls. However numerous these polls should do with the rising price of dwelling, and partly accountable are the 29 new and will increase in taxes below the NDP authorities. Additionally, there have been the rising rates of interest, although they’re barely dropping now.

My private concern is a political surroundings that’s much like what occurred in Europe within the Nineteen Thirties, and that perhaps taking place once more in some locations.

All of that mentioned, I believe that a number of the potential blame could lay with the voters once they simply take heed to slogans however don’t care about information. Or, in one other manner, human nature — wanting to put blame on one thing, any person else, as a substitute of trying within the mirror and asking, “What can I do to change things!”

Martin Holzbauer,
Thornhill, BC, Canada

Full disclosure: I used to be a part of the executives of the Land, Air, Water or LAW Occasion that ran one candidate in 2017. Additionally, I ran as an unbiased in 2020.

Featured photograph by Keelan Clemens