Regarding FSD & Robotaxis, I Don’t Think Elon Musk Has Been “Lying” For A Decade

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I’ve seen this declare numerous instances, and I perceive the place it’s coming from, however I don’t imagine it. I usually brush previous it, however given {that a} high pc scientist generally known as the “Godfather of AI” simply mentioned it, and likewise given the big controversy and confusion round Elon Musk lately (or, effectively, possibly most of his life), I really feel compelled to lastly deal with it — and likewise deal with how the elemental points could relate to a whole lot of different essential issues.

The declare is that Elon Musk has been mendacity to everybody about Full Self Driving for years. Extra particularly, this has involved his claims over the previous a number of years that Tesla autos could be succesful, technologically, of working as robotaxis “next year” or “by the end of the year.” Musk kicked off these claims in 2016, if I recall accurately, when he said on a quarterly Tesla shareholder conference call“Well, again, major product announcements are not — I shouldn’t do those on an earnings call, obviously. And all I’d say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we’ve got under development is going to blow people’s minds. It blows my mind, so….” If I bear in mind accurately, that is the primary severe assertion he made that implied robotaxis could be coming quickly. However earlier than we go additional on these ongoing claims, let’s get again to what the “Godfather of AI” simply mentioned.

Yann LeCun, VP & Chief AI Scientist at Metawrote: “Elon: ‘I’ve kept lying to you again and again about Tesla’s ‘Full Self Driving’ capabilities for the last 8 years, but you should believe everything I say about politics and everything else.’” This was a brief remark he made whereas sharing a long critique of Elon’s FSD claims over time. He added in response to somebody who wasn’t a fan of his Musk “hating” on X: “I don’t hate Elon. I hate his lies. I like his cars, rockets, and satellite network.” (Hat tip to Futurism.)

Mendacity is saying one thing you recognize shouldn’t be true. Sure, I do suppose Musk has lied just a few instances about FSD (and I don’t excuse him for that), however usually talking, folks use this phrase when speaking about his utterly off-the-mark forecasts about Tesla robotaxi functionality. Keep in mind the LA-to-NYC journey a Tesla was alleged to make autonomously? Keep in mind all of the instances he predicted Tesla autos could be able to working as robotaxis in a few years, subsequent yr, and even by the tip of the yr? I’m not going to dig all of them up and timestamp them proper now, however there have been many, and I assume they’re documented within the Dan O’Dowd article Yann LeCun was responding to. The purpose is that he has made these statements, they have been incorrect, and it has principally change into a operating joke — as a result of what number of years in a row are you able to make a really comparable projection and be incorrect? And that’s a part of why folks have known as it mendacity or known as him a “snake oil salesman.”

Musk himself has mentioned that he’s simply overly optimistic, particularly with timelines. Others near him, like his brother Kimbal, have mentioned the identical. I believe that is a part of it, however solely a part of it. The truth that I’ve come to see this as solely a part of it’s doubtlessly an essential level.

If it was nearly timing, effectively, nobody is saying all the utterly off-the-mark predictions aren’t essential*, however the concept his mind simply lacks a correct calendar and every part shall be true in time is extra palatable for followers than doubting his core understanding of the matter. (*Sorry, that’s a false assertion really — many Elon followers do contend that each one of these missed forecasts aren’t essential.) The critique of his timelines is a well-liked one amongst followers. You possibly can’t moderately ignore that his FSD/robotaxi predictions have been horrible in terms of timing, however you’ll be able to put a optimistic spin on it by saying that he simply thinks that far forward of everybody else and doesn’t count on it to take so lengthy to get there.

Nevertheless, he’s really received a various monitor regard with the timing of issues. His long-term forecasts for Tesla manufacturing and gross sales from the early 2010s, and even earlier than that, have been nearly spot on what the corporate achieved in 2020. There have been some dangerous short-term forecasts inside that timeframe, however the long-term forecast was loopy good. (I wrote about this again in 2020 or so, with documentation from an early Tesla slidedeck for traders and early statements from Musk.) However his forecasts on another issues — photo voltaic glass roof tiles, deployment of the Tesla Semi, Tesla Cybertruck pricing and vary, Tesla battery developments, Tesla photo voltaic progress, the necessity (or lack thereof) for bodily shops — have been a lot worse. So, sure, typically he nails it however every part takes longer than anticipated; different instances, opposite to what some followers imagine, his assumptions and predictions are simply off.

With rocket ships and electrical vehicles, we’ve seen that his preliminary concepts relating to sure prospects in these realms and his obsession with turning these concepts into actuality have led to nice success at Tesla and SpaceX. That time period “obsession” is purposeful. When he has assumed issues that weren’t true, alternatively, and utilized his obsession to the duty, he has ended up with notable failures.

As we’ve seen him tweet about a wide range of different issues lately, we’ve seen an identical sort of obsession with just a few completely different issues. In 2022, he tweeted“I’m thinking of creating a ‘Super Moderate Super PAC’ that supports candidates with centrist views from all parties.” Anybody who follows his tweets lately ought to giggle out loud at the concept Musk would assist “moderate” politicians. He has change into extremely controversial, he has repeatedly tweeted extremist conspiracy theories, he has change into extremely partisan, he has engaged in frequent identify calling and private assaults, and he has even gone to battle quite a few instances with reasonable politicians, to not point out reasonable regular folks. The factor is that he will get obsessive over an concept, and that may result in increasingly excessive habits and failures quite than adjusting and altering course. It may possibly additionally result in overcoming tough obstacles and succeeding in issues which might be extraordinarily tough. He’s probably not the kind of one who’s fast to absorb counterarguments and cease believing in an concept — for higher or for worse.

That’s the place we get again to FSD and robotaxis. Clearly, Musk has put all his religion in these working. I believe that every time he made a forecast about these coming “next year” or such, he strongly believed it. Whilst Tesla has failed at completely different steps, Musk has clung to the preliminary imaginative and prescient and been adamant it can come true. He hasn’t been mendacity. He has merely change into obsessed along with his preliminary assumptions, time and time once more. The query is: is that this a case the place he’s simply off, and the elemental evaluation and prediction gained’t come true, or is that this a case the place he’s received the basics down, and he simply wants time to be confirmed proper? We will see….