EVs At 65.0% Share In Sweden — Tesla Model Y Outperforms

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September’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs at 65.0% share in Sweden, modestly up YoY from 63.4%. BEV share was nearly flat, although volumes have been down YoY by 8%. General auto quantity was 25,725 models, down 9% YoY. The Tesla Mannequin Y was by far the most effective promoting BEV, with quantity better than the following 9 fashions mixed.

September’s market information confirmed mixed plugin EVs at 65.0% share in Sweden, with full electrical BEVs at a near-record 44.8% and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 20.2%. These figures examine YoY in opposition to 63.4% mixed, 44.4% BEV and 19.0% PHEV.

That is the 2nd highest market share ever for BEVs in Sweden, solely bettered by December 2022 (which befitted from a pull-forward forward of incentive cuts). That’s a great outcome, however the precise BEV unit volumes have been nonetheless down some 8% in comparison with September 2023, albeit barely outperforming the general market drop of 9%. It’s additionally value noting that, as we are going to see under, a lot of September’s BEV quantity got here from an enormous cargo of the Tesla Mannequin Y (29% greater than any earlier finish of quarter), so the flip aspect is that we’ll see relative cooling of Mannequin Y volumes (and thus total BEV volumes) in October’s figures.

PHEVs have seen regular market share within the 19% to 26% vary for the previous 12 months, and can probably stay on this zone till extra BEV fashions, at extra reasonably priced costs, turn into the norm. Extra ubiquitous fast-charging infrastructure may even assist blunt the attraction of PHEVs for these cautious customers who’ve phantom refilling nervousness. Till that stage, PHEVs stay a net-positive answer relative to the far better variety of newly registered plugless autos nonetheless being added to Sweden’s roads.

Put in another way, Sweden continues to be within the mid-stage of the EV transition, the place plugless autos nonetheless symbolize over a 3rd of all new automobile gross sales. The present technology of PHEVs, similar to the favored Volvo XC60 (representing over 20% of PHEVs bought), have comparatively massive batteries and may get near 80 km of electric-only vary.

When used as designed (not all the time a given, particularly when tax-breaks skew behaviour), present PHEVs can convert 80% of annual km pushed to electrical. That is clearly an enormous enchancment in comparison with the 100% ICE-derived power of plugless autos. That being stated, again in 2021, there was discuss of Volvo planning to supply a full-BEV model of the XC60 by late 2024, however this clearly hasn’t materialized, which is disappointing.

One brilliant spot is that diesel-only share continues to steadily decline, reaching a report low of 4.8% of the Swedish market in September (and simply 308 models), down from 7.6% a 12 months in the past.

Greatest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Tesla Mannequin Y was overwhelmingly dominant within the BEV market in September, with an enormous 4,126 models registered, its highest ever quantity. This would possibly the truth is be an all-time report quantity for any auto mannequin bought in a single month in Sweden (it’s actually a report for BEV fashions). Leap into the feedback you probably have insights into this.

In second place was its older sibling, the Tesla Mannequin 3, with 643 models. In third was one other long-term favorite, the Volvo XC40, with 609 models.

The Tesla Mannequin Y was so dominant in September that it greater than matched the mixed quantity of the following 9 BEV fashions!

The remainder of the highest 20 BEV rankings have been pretty regular, with one or two noteworthy performances. The brand new Polestar fashions, the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4, have now began buyer deliveries in earnest, with 144 models (18th) and 218 models (eleventh), respectively, in September. Time will inform if this wholesome quantity represents merely catching up with an order backlog or assembly a pattern of rising demand for these new fashions.

There have been 5 BEV mannequin debuts in September. The best-volume debut got here from the brand new Porsche Macan, which noticed 114 models. See final month’s Germany report for a short overview of the brand new Porsche. This can be a compelling automobile, although costly, ranging from 940,000SEK (€83,000), so I’d be stunned if the month-to-month quantity may be sustained at way more than September’s quantity. Let’s see.

Subsequent up was the brand new Peugeot e-5008, which noticed 35 preliminary models registered forward of its official market debut in October. We’ll go into extra element about this mid-large SUV mannequin within the French report when it arrives in first rate quantity. This can be a crowded a part of the market, so don’t count on wonders from Stellantis, particularly given their historical past of overpricing their BEVs.

Considerably to my shock, Cadillac registered 8 models of the brand new Lyriq in September. I haven’t seen many Cadillac fashions (of any sort) round Europe in current many years, so maybe this first rate new BEV mannequin is an opportunity for Cadillac to ascertain a distinct segment foothold in Europe?

Lastly the brand new Mini Aceman additionally noticed its first registrations, with 8 models in September. By way of  Mini’s current BEV lineup, the Aceman, at 4079 mm in size, sits nearer to the already established Cooper hatchback (3858mm), than the a lot bigger Countryman CUV (4433mm). Nevertheless, the Aceman has pseudo-crossover styling (e.g. with “rugged” plastic wheel-arches) that make it visually extra just like the bigger Countryman.

The Mini Aceman has battery choices from 38.5 kWh (usable) as much as 49.2 kWh, giving a WLTP vary of as much as 406 km for many who need that first rate vary. Having this selection is an enormous enchancment over the primary technology Mini BEV, the Cooper, with its very modest vary. On that observe – the new Cooper additionally will get these bigger battery choices, and the larger Countryman will get a 64.6 kWh (usable) battery with WLTP rated vary of 462 km. With these decently long-range choices, Mini has now correctly entered the BEV period.

Final month’s debutant, the Volvo EX90, noticed its quantity enhance from the preliminary 14 models, to 22 models in September. It absolutely has a lot additional to climb from right here, so let’s keep watch over the brand new Volvo.

The Xpeng G6, which debuted again in July, continues to be steadily climbing, reaching a good 51 models in September. That is no nice shock, because the G6 is a really compelling proposition in its phase.

Let’s now flip to the longer-term rankings:

Clearly the Tesla Mannequin Y is strongly dominant right here additionally, with extra quantity than the following 4 BEV fashions mixed.

There are not any nice surprises within the prime 10, though the Skoda Enyaq continues its restoration into the highest 10 ranks, after a quiet first half of the 12 months. Likewise, the Volkswagen ID.7 is doing very effectively, climbing to seventh spot, from fifteenth within the Q2 rankings.

Most different strikes within the prime 20 are shuffles inside the regular vary of variation.

Simply exterior the highest 20, the Zeekr X (a cousin of the Volvos and Polestars), following a quiet preliminary few months from the spring into summer time, has just lately stepped up. It gained twenty seventh place within the 3-month rankings, after a good 91 models in September. If it may keep these sorts of volumes, it’s going to draw near the highest 20 within the coming months.

Lastly, one mannequin which is on the cusp of breaking into the highest 20 is the brand new Audi Q6 e-tron, which is proving fashionable in Sweden. This could come as a shock to no-one, given the unique Audi (Q8) e-tron’s excellent recognition in Sweden just a few years in the past, regardless of its excessive worth level.

The brand new Q6 e-tron has rapidly climbed to twenty first spot, from its July buyer debut, and may break into the highest 20 subsequent month.

Outlook

Sweden’s auto market is down in quantity 8% 12 months up to now, with BEVs down by a a lot larger 19%. Put in another way, nearly the entire misplaced auto quantity in 2024 is because of a decline in BEV gross sales. That is unsurprising throughout an financial recession, with BEVs from legacy auto nonetheless grossly overpriced. For context, the remaining finest promoting petrol-only fashions are principally easy worth fashions at worth factors round or below €20,000. These fundamental ICE vehicles appear reasonably priced by comparability to BEVs, which nonetheless have few to no mannequin choices at these costs in Europe. In the meantime, in China, BEVs are dominating ICE in all market segments, even these under €10,000.

Excessive costs for BEVs, mixed with a weak financial system, will proceed to place a dampener on Sweden’s EV progress within the months forward. Newest nationwide economic data from Q2 data GDP at a lacklustre 0.5% YoY progress. Headline inflation has cooled to 1.9%, and rates of interest are at 3.25%. Manufacturing PMI fell again barely, to 51.3 factors in September, from 52.6 in August.

What are your ideas on Sweden’s place within the EV transition? Please bounce into the dialogue under and be part of the dialog.