Tesla Sales Up 6.4% In 3rd Quarter — Charts & Graphs

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Tesla has launched its third quarter manufacturing and supply (aka gross sales) numbers. On the again of two straight quarters of dropping gross sales (yr over yr), there was a lot anticipation to see how a lot Tesla might bounce again and see gross sales progress within the third quarter. The consequence: Tesla deliveries in Q3 2024 totaled 462,890, a 6.4% enhance over the 435,059 deliveries of Q3 2023.

Going again to the first quarter and 2nd quarter, Tesla’s year-over-year gross sales drops have been 8.5% and 4.8%. So, this third quarter bounce received issues again on observe, however the firm will nonetheless want a powerful 4th quarter with a purpose to log gross sales progress in 2024 — which CEO Elon Musk mentioned earlier this yr can be the case. Will it obtain that to show Musk proper, or will Tesla have its first full year-over-year drop in gross sales in its historical past? We’ll focus on that additional as we get nearer and get a greater sense of what’s going to occur within the 4th quarter.

Except for general gross sales, there are another narratives to drag out.

Trying on the massive canine — the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y — their gross sales grew 4.99%. Sure, I might have simply mentioned 5%, however the 4.99% jumped out to me as a form of widespread rate of interest determine or whatnot and made me chuckle. The extra necessary level right here, although, is that the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y grew lower than Tesla gross sales general. However, in the event you actually give it some thought, it’s a little bit stunning this determine was as excessive because it was, as a result of …

Meaning the Tesla Cybertruck didn’t ramp up as a lot as many most likely anticipated it might (and lots of others didn’t). Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck gross sales individually, however lumped in with the Mannequin S and Mannequin X, these three “large Tesla” fashions had simply 22,915 deliveries. Sure, that’s 43.35% progress for the “large Tesla” group since Q3 2023, however it’s actually not a big quantity for the Cybertruck even when 22,000 of these deliveries have been Cybertrucks (which is clearly not the case). For comparability, 21,551 Cybertrucks plus Mannequin Ss plus Mannequin Xs have been delivered within the second quarter. So, there was virtually no distinction from Q2 to Q3. That appears regarding to me. Although, it additionally means there’s extra potential in coming quarters if Tesla can ramp up Cybertruck manufacturing and deliveries, and it means Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y gross sales have been, no less than, nonetheless up 5%.

These are the official numbers. To be able to strive to take a look at the traits in additional element, I’ve carried out my normal cut up of the mannequin teams primarily based on quite a lot of historic information and traits, together with numbers from particular markets like China, Europe, and the US. The next are a chart, a graph, and a short dialogue taking these estimates under consideration. (Be aware: Interactive variations of the chart and graph can be found on the underside of the article, together with another chart. Although, they might not show effectively on some telephones — higher to view on a pc.)

What this chart and graph emphasize to me, as normal, is simply how massive of an element the Mannequin Y and Mannequin 3 are for the corporate. It’s all about these two fashions. If their gross sales drop, the corporate crashes, however for the time being, we’re principally seeing their gross sales plateau. They’re not rising like they used to, however they’re not crashing both. How lengthy is that this going to be the case?

Additionally, there’s potential for the Cybertruck to stand up and grow to be a mass-market mannequin. Or not. Possibly. We’ll see. In the mean time, it’s struggling to separate itself from Mannequin S and Mannequin X territory. However the important thing level is that it’s actually arduous to know simply how a lot potential the mannequin has. Will it stay down in that territory ceaselessly? Or can it compete with the nation’s widespread pickup vans as soon as the manufacturing ramp-up is full?

Naturally, Tesla’s narrative is all about robotaxis, robotics, and AI lately. Some see it as a deflection from stagnating and even drooping gross sales. Others see it as a key space of the long run the place Tesla is main and will stay as much as its large market cap and hype. I can see each arguments, however I don’t know which goes to finish up being extra true. We’ll see. Within the meantime, what I’m most wanting to see in the remainder of 2024 is how effectively Tesla can do within the 4th quarter. Can it actually get its gross sales progress mojo again? Will it simply preserve cruising at about the identical stage? Or might its gross sales even slide down as folks get uninterested in Tesla’s fashions, get turned off by Elon Musk’s political sideshow, or discover different choices they like?

From my perspective, 4th quarter gross sales can’t come quickly sufficient! I’m tremendous wanting to learn the way this irregular yr seems for Tesla.

Listed here are interactive variations of the entire charts and graphs above, in addition to another chart the place you may swap between fashions: