EVs Take 27.6% Share In France — Citroën e-C3 Arrives In A Rush

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September’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, a drop from 29.3% yr on yr. BEV share grew modestly YoY, whereas PHEV share fell. General auto quantity was 139,003 items, down by some 11% YoY. The Tesla Mannequin Y was the very best promoting BEV in September.

September’s market information noticed mixed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, with 20.4% full battery-electrics (BEVs) and seven.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 29.3% mixed, 19.3% BEV and 10.0% PHEV.

BEV quantity really decreased by some 6% YoY — although, in a broader market which noticed an 11% drop, BEV share nonetheless elevated marginally. PHEVs fared much less nicely, with quantity down some 26% YoY and share right down to 7.2% from 10.0%. PHEV share has been remarkably regular at 7-something % for the previous 6 months.

Yr up to now, BEVs have solely taken an extra ~1.2% of market share in contrast up to now final yr (17.1% vs 15.9%), which is clearly a weak development trajectory. The excellent news is that each Citroen and Renault have lastly began buyer deliveries of their new somewhat-affordable BEVs in September, having solely delivered small numbers of dealer-demonstration items beforehand.

The Renault 5 noticed an honest 1,101 items in September, and the Citroen e-C3 made a formidable 3,626 registrations. If the approaching few months might maybe preserve (or enhance) these sorts of volumes, it’s going to enhance 2024’s total BEV trajectory again into comparatively constructive territory, however it’s not but a certain factor, as we are going to see under.

As we are able to see from the powertrain evolution chart under, petrol-only gross sales proceed to get replaced by HEV gross sales, in virtually direct proportion. Nevertheless, virtually half of those “HEVs” tallied up by the French auto business physique (the PFA) are the truth is merely mild-hybrids that sometimes use a really modest electrical motor complement to an ICE engine and do mild regen, fairly than with the ability to drive in electrical mode for himselfeven for a brief distance (as full HEVs at the very least can do, to some extent).

These sorts of mild-hybrid HEVs do enhance an ICE engine’s gas financial system modestly (by round 15% sometimes), however are solely a quick-fix non permanent stopgap on the best way to principally plugin powertrains, and ultimately, virtually totally BEVs.

Diesel-only gross sales additionally continued to shrink, right down to a brand new file low of 5.8% share (from 8.5% YoY), and eight,083 items.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Tesla Mannequin Y was again to the highest of France’s BEV charts in September, with a formidable 4,591 registrations. That is its greatest consequence since December 2023, and solely barely under the YoY quantity from September 2023. Provided that there are actually a a lot wider array of BEV fashions accessible in comparison with a yr in the past, that is a formidable consequence.

In second place was the brand new Citroen e-C3, with 3,626 items, and in third was the Peugeot e-208, with 1,420 items.

The Renault Scenic, in 4th, put in a file efficiency, with 1,264 items, up from its earlier better of 991 items in July. As we are going to see under, this implies the Scenic has simply overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, within the trailing 3-month rankings, as we just lately predicted.

The Mini Cooper has additionally continued to develop, now touchdown in sixth spot with a brand new file of 1091 items. Is that this, the truth is, the Cooper mannequin? The AAA information supply simply names the “Mini – Mini” because the bearer of this tally, so this might the truth is be any of, or maybe some mixture of, the brand new era of Mini BEVs. Tell us within the feedback in case you have insights.

There wasn’t an excessive amount of dramatic information within the high 20 ranks, apart from the long-awaited quantity arrival of the 2 new “affordable” BEVs from Citroen and Renault that I discussed earlier. We solely have entry to restricted mannequin quantity information, and evidently below-the-radar numbers (low 3-digit volumes) of each of those new BEVs the truth is began to be registered over the previous two months, presumably for preliminary dealer-demonstration items.

There’s a combined blessing within the spectacular wanting Citroen e-C3 numbers for September. From local reportingevidently this surprisingly massive quantity of three,626 items was the results of a rush job by Citroen to attempt to meet the end-of-September deadline for delivering vehicles contracted beneath the the Social Leasing Programmesigned in early 2024.

Within the occasion that Citroen didn’t meet the supply deadline for the federal government programme (and allow customers to say the inducement), it must honour the low cost pricing itself… and in the long run, that unlucky end result occurred. Though 3,626 items did meet the deadline, an extra 2,000 to 2,500 contracted items didn’tso Citroen needed to honour the low cost out of its personal pocket. This apparently amounted to round €13,000 per automobile, costing Citroen a tidy ~€30 million.

I’m unsure if an identical state of affairs utilized to the timing of the first rate variety of Renault 5 deliveries in September additionally, tell us in case you have information about that. Both means, although unlucky, these missteps will possible fade from view in the long term, if the Citroen e-C3 lives as much as its potential of being the model’s greatest promoting BEV, with many tens of 1000’s — maybe even low lots of of 1000’s — of items bought yearly.

Let’s now take a look at the 3-month charts:

Regardless of its erratic month-to-month numbers, the longer-term view reveals that the Tesla Mannequin Y continues to be in a powerful lead total within the French BEV market.

The Citroen e-C3’s September rush-job instantly boosted it to second place, however this can be a short lived rank (at the very least within the short-term), as soon as it begins delivering the initially modest month-to-month output to different European nations. In the long term, as soon as totally ramped and with a number of worth variants, the e-C3 might (ought to?) definitely be a daily member of France’s high 3.

The previous native favorite, the Peugeot e-208, stays in style for now, and took third place.

As alluded to earlier, the Renault Scenic has now lastly overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, by a slim margin (20 items), ending up in fourth place in September. We will count on this new household pecking-order to stay in place for the foreseeable future — at the very least till the Renault 5 begins to succeed in actually vital manufacturing volumes over the following yr or so.

Speaking of the Renault 5, on high of September’s 1,101 items, there have been a handful of items (of unknown amount) delivered over the previous couple of months, so I’ve given it an honorary 1,250 items within the 3-month chart, which places it someplace between the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 siblings. Relying on its ramp up and nation allocation choices, the brand new Renault 5 will possible keep within the high 15 spots within the subsequent couple of months, and step by step rise, maybe into the highest 5 spots, over the following yr or so. Let’s keep watch over it.

Outlook

Considerably clumsily in Citroen’s case, the brand new more-affordable small BEVs have lastly arrived in  substantial volumes in France, and may now assist carry the EV trajectory for the rest of the yr. As talked about a number of occasions just lately, Europe’s BEV transition will solely correctly resume its upward journey in 2025, when tighter emissions rules come into impact throughout the EU regulatory zone.

France’s broader financial system stays tepid, however much less weak than lots of its neighbours. Q2 2024 GDP output was just 1% up YoYnewest inflation figures are at an improved 1.2%, and rates of interest (from the ECB) decreased to three.65%. Manufacturing PMI stays weak nevertheless, at 44.6 factors in September, from 43.9 factors in August.

With the brand new Citroen e-C3 and Renault 5 now lastly reaching customers, what are your ideas on the 2024 EV transition trajectory for France? As a reminder, 2021 full yr noticed a 9.8% BEV share, 2022 noticed 13.3%, and 2023 noticed 16.8%. As of now, 2024 yr up to now stands at 17.1%. With these new fashions, will BEV share attain near 19% for full yr 2024? Tell us within the feedback under.