Will Tonight's Tesla Robotaxi Event Produce Excitement Or Disappointment?

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The long-awaited Tesla Robotaxi occasion is scheduled to start out at 10 PM EST, or 7 PM PST tonight. A lot hypothesis has swirled round CEO Elon Musk and whether or not he’ll embark on one other revolutionary innovation with self-driving and robotics — or disappoint with extra far-fetched guarantees relatively than tangible outcomes.

Tonight’s occasion on the Warner Bros. Studios lot in California might ship Tesla fan boys right into a frenzy or trigger the share worth to plummet. How Musk positions the corporate’s progress on autonomy tonight might be key to its acceptance. Will the discharge happen in 2025? Or 5 or ten years from now?

The occasion’s title — “We, Robot” — is an allusion to a basic Isaac Asimov short story collection that deconstructs foundational moral and psychological questions round constructing more and more human-like robots. The devoted Tesla Robotaxi would transport passengers with no driver — a aim that Tesla’s semi-autonomous software program has not confirmed to be dependable to this point.

Analysts Weigh In on the We, Robotic Occasion

“I think it’s one of the most important events that Tesla has ever held,” said Dan Ives, analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull. “I think it will be viewed five to 10 years from now as what the iPhone launch moment was for Apple.”

“For Robotaxi Day on Oct. 10, we expect an unveiling of the ‘CyberCab’ at the venue, (and) some type of robotaxi demo … Moreover, Tesla should unveil the new lower cost vehicle slated for SOP (start of production) next year (“Model 2” or cheaper/smaller Mannequin 3 variant),” Deutsche Financial institution’s Edison Yu wrote in a word.

Others have speculated {that a} humanoid robot might be by Musk’s aspect.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who named Tesla his “top pick” within the autos house, has suggested purchasers to “keep expectations well managed” for the occasion.”

We expect the stakes are excessive and there may be extra threat to the draw back than upside given the inventory’s current run-up and chance that the occasion might disappoint,” CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson wrote on Oct. 2.

Tesla’s resolution to deal with the Robotaxi over a mass market, low priced battery electrical mannequin has been controversial. Analysis agency AutoPacific’s 2024 Future Attribute Demand Study means that autonomy doesn’t actually drive automotive purchases. Proper now folks appear extra comfy with fundamental automated options like rain-sensing windshield wipers, cross-traffic alerts, and computerized emergency braking.

Musk has stated he desires to construct a robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals, and pictures of the car that had been included in Walter Isaacson’s Elon Musk biography, which was printed in 2023, point to a Cybertruck-inspired, two-door, two-seater compact car. Some folks are predicting that the product could have butterfly-wing doorways. Reuters says Tesla is widely expected to showcase a prototype referred to as the “Cybercab” relatively than a road-ready driverless taxi.

The Gradual Highway to Full-Self Driving and the Robotaxi

Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) is a number of steps above typical driver help applications. It might autonomously direct a Tesla on a variety of roads and navigate stoplights, cease indicators, and pedestrians with out human enter — no less than that’s the target. Throughout most FSD classes, nevertheless, a human should assume management of the car.

It’s been practically ten years since Musk suggested that the corporate’s self-driving vehicles can be quickly obtainable. Tesla’s “Master Plan, Part Deux” in 2016 (which has since been deleted from the Tesla weblog web page) included comments about the benefits of including a ride-hailing fleet to its portfolio.

Screenshot from Tesla weblog

As NPR talliedMusk has made many guarantees in regards to the Robotaxi’s implementation.

2019: “Next year for sure we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”
2020: “I think we could see robotaxis in operation … next year. Not in all markets, but in some.”
2021: “I’m highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year.”
2022: I’d be shocked if we don’t obtain full self-driving safer-than-human this yr.”
2023: “Now, I know I’m the boy who cried (Full-Self-Driving), but man, I think — I think we’ll be better than human by the end of this year.”
2024: “Obviously, my predictions on this have been overly optimistic in the past. … Next year seems highly probable to me.”

In the course of the Could, 2023 Annual Shareholder Assembly, Musk teased a future Tesla mannequin that will be compact and modestly priced. Musk described the longer term Tesla catalog as having “two new products that I think you will be very excited about.”

Musk himself has said that he’s simply overly optimistic, particularly with timelines. A number of weeks after Musk introduced the Robotaxi occasion, he decreased greater than 10% of Tesla’s workforce and stated the battery electrical automotive firm was going “balls to the wall for autonomy.”

The unique August 8, 2024 unveiling date was postponed till tonight, as having two extra months allowed groups extra time to construct extra prototypes. Proper now, feel-good emotions have contributed to an 11-day streak of positive aspects that added greater than $257 billion to Tesla’s market capitalization.

At this writing, the Tesla share worth is $241.94.

“The overwhelming focus is on solving full self-driving,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated in 2022. “It’s really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero.”

The corporate should show it will possibly launch a driverless car that may compete with robotaxi rivals like Waymo and Cruise. And there’s a important distinction between the three firms’ approaches. Musk determined to construct a system based mostly solely on cheap cameras with out companion inputs. Different firms depend on radar and high-tech sensors. Musk additionally has embraced “end-to-end learning” the place the synthetic intelligence “learns” learn how to drive from uncooked knowledge. Different firms add human-designed guidelines and guardrails to their AI methods.

Analyst George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity Group notes that Musk’s method requires billions of {dollars} of upfront funding in AI, however less expensive {hardware} on autos. That’s a mixture that’s costly now, however would repay if there have been, say, tens of millions of robotaxis on the street.

Musk is adamant that Tesla’s method is superior. “Our entire road network is designed for biological neural nets” — that’s, human brains — “and eyes, so naturally cameras and digital neural nets are the solution,” Musk advised traders earlier this yr. Tesla additionally has huge quantities of driving knowledge from its autos on the street immediately.

The occasion might be broadcast on X and different on-line areas. Hyperlinks for viewing on the Tesla web site and YouTube haven’t been distributed at this writing.

Tesla will report Q3 earnings on October 23.