Tesla Investor’s Critical Summary of Tesla Robotaxi Event

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Tesla had its massive robotaxi occasion final evening. Pre-market, the inventory is down practically 7%. I believe it’s truthful to say that Tesla unveiled some very cool trying robotaxi idea autos, but additionally did little or no to point out how or when it’s getting from the place it’s in the present day to those robotaxis truly being offered to clients and on the highway in full operation.

Probably the most bullish hopes for final evening’s occasion would have been the hope that Tesla would launch robotaxi operations in some markets instantly, however that was unlikely. By the tip of the 12 months would have been shut sufficient and really bullish. Although, I’d hope that the majority followers and buyers wouldn’t expect that. In the event that they had been, they have to be disenchanted, as a result of there was no point out of that occuring. I believe the extra lifelike however bullish expectation was that Tesla would present a production-ready robotaxi, present a transparent timeline for when it will launch as a robotaxi, and point out which jurisdictions (states) would allow launch by that point. This, to me, was too bullish however I assume should have been what many buyers had been hoping for.

One very notable Tesla investor, Gary Black, was extra skeptical, and I’d say utterly in step with my expectations, and thus my response to what Tesla revealed. Earlier than I am going additional, I’m embedding his tweet after which the Tesla reveal video itself in case you haven’t watched it (word that the presentation begins about 53 minutes in).

$TSLA “We, Robot” was lengthy on promise and quick on specifics and for us, was largely as anticipated. TSLA didn’t unveil a $25-$30K compact, however did reveal a 20-person autonomous Artwork Deco bus. The occasion didn’t deal with how Tesla will make the leap from promoting supervised FSD to… pic.twitter.com/tCRWxUbkN4

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 11, 2024

So, a couple of key highlights, together with quotes from Tesla investor Gary Black’s tweet:

1. “TSLA did not unveil a $25-$30K compact, but did reveal a 20-person autonomous Art Deco bus.” So, yeah, the look forward to a extra inexpensive Tesla automobile goes on.
2. “The event didn’t address how Tesla will make the leap from selling supervised FSD to unsupervised autonomous vehicles.” Certainly. That is probably the most I hoped for — some clear clarification of how they’d get from A (the place we’re in the present day) to B (robotaxi operations). Nope.
3. “Elon promised TSLA would offer unsupervised FSD by 2025 year-end on current SX3Y and CT models in Texas and California, where miles per necessary intervention are likely the highest, and a production robotaxi before 2027.” Okay, that is one thing like a plan, however it’s additionally simply the obscure sort of prediction/forecast Tesla has offered for a number of years after which missed targets on. A 12 months+ continues to be far sufficient out that one would assume a Tesla prediction can’t be tremendous stable, and Elon Musk’s predictions on such timelines previously have been tremendous poor. In fact, 2027 is much off for an precise manufacturing robotaxi, and much sufficient off than any Tesla prediction proper now’s extra of a wild guess. Naturally, in case you had been anticipating a manufacturing robotaxi to be proven final evening, you’ve received to be sorely disenchanted.
4. “He did not provide a business model for how the robotaxi would generate revenue other than to say consumers could buy a Cybercab for under $30,000 and entrepreneurs might invest in a ‘flock’ of robotaxis that could work 100 hours/week instead of the roughly 10 hours/week they operate today.” I’m not going to lie — that is the place issues actually received a bit off monitor for me. I do know there have been sturdy hints of this, however Musk additionally proclaimed many instances that Teslas with FSD would respect in worth as soon as they cracked the robotaxi nut. But now they plan to promote a robotaxi for less than $30,000? How is my 2019 Tesla Mannequin 3 with FSD going to understand in worth? Have been these completely false claims that Musk has given up on? Is there authorized recourse for many who really feel swindled? I’ll go away it to others to chatter about and doubtlessly rent legal professionals for. Not my recreation. In any case, yeah, it’s a cool Cybercab idea, and just like what I anticipated Tesla was engaged on, however the doorways look impractical for a robotaxi and the idea continues to be far-off from manufacturing. General, that is way more of a miss than successful, imho.
5. “Elon did not disclose TSLA’s current intervention efficacy data.” In fact now.
6. “Musk’s presentation lacked technical details and glossed over topics including regulation or whether the company will own and operate its own fleet of Cybercabs or leverage third-party ride hailing platforms.” Frankly, this feels similar to a presentation from years in the past, with equally low stage of particulars and far-off grand forecasts you simply must place confidence in.
7. “We very much liked the design of the new $TSLA cybercab. It will be a two seater with two doors that open skyward, with no steering wheel or pedals. The cybercab borrowed heavily from today’s Cybertruck design and was very futuristic looking.” Sure, it appears to be like cool. It additionally appears to be like like many different idea autos proven at auto reveals through the years — enjoyable, futuristic, and unrealistic. Will Tesla come by means of and truly construct it. Most likely. However on the timeline and on the value projected? I’m not holding my breath.

Tesla continues to be struggling to get Cybertruck manufacturing volumes up and prices down. I’m not saying it received’t achieve this, simply because it did with all of its earlier fashions, however it’s clear there are challenges the corporate continues to be going through on this. And there are additionally points with reliability and repairability. It’s nowhere near a completed product. So, one other automobile that may be a sort of combo of a Cybertruck, a Mannequin 3, and a Mannequin X looks like a whimsical far-off dream that has many hurdles forward earlier than it’s in a buyer’s hand. 2027? Perhaps. We’ll see.

So far as Full Self Driving (Unsupervised), we actually don’t have any extra information than we had earlier than 10/10, will we? Any hope for a giant announcement about progress on FSD, intervention charges reaching a important tipping level, or regulatory approval was misguided hope, as we now know.

One factor I’m wondering: was anybody really thrilled by the information of the occasion final evening? Other than seeing the designs of the automobile ideas, was there something unveiled on the occasion that anybody wasn’t actually anticipating?