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October’s auto market noticed plugin EVs at 23.5% share in France, down from 26.5% 12 months on 12 months. Basic hybrids (HEVs) had been the one powertrain that noticed YoY development, with plugins shedding floor, although faring higher than combustion-only automobiles. Total auto quantity was 135,532 items, down 13.3% YoY. The brand new Citroen e-C3 was France’s finest promoting BEV in October.
October noticed mixed EVs at 23.5% share in France, with full battery electrics (BEVs) at 15.4%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 8.0%. These evaluate with YoY figures of 26.5% mixed, 16.7% BEV, and 9.8% PHEV.
Even in opposition to the backdrop of an general auto market that shrank 13.3% YoY, each BEVs and PHEVs nonetheless misplaced market shareattributable to even larger quantity drops than the market common. This isn’t nice.
Solely plugless hybrids (HEVs and gentle hybrids) noticed YoY development in October, leaping strongly from 26.6% share to 40.4% share, and now the biggest powertrain share of the market. It bears repeating that HEVs are 100% depending on combustion of fuels for his or her power supply, and can’t drive on renewable electrical energy alone (in contrast to BEVs and PHEVs).
HEVs depend on a transitional know-how whose innovation peak was the late Nineteen Nineties and early 2000s. If Norway is any information to the automotive future (and it’s), HEVs will peak within the subsequent 12 months or two, and thereafter lose share (presently down to only 1.1% share in Norway) as BEVs steadily take nearly the whole auto market. HEVs’ present lead can also be, partly, a consequence of France reducing incentives on reasonably priced BEVs from exterior Europe, and extra just lately voting for added tariffs on one of the best worth BEVs, these made in China. See the August report for extra dialogue.
In the meantime, combustion-only powertrains continued to say no. Diesels fell to six.5% share, from 7.8% YoY. Petrol fell to 26.9%, from 35.5% YoY.
Greatest Promoting BEV Fashions
Following the push to fulfill the September deadline for the Social Leasing Programmethe brand new Citroen e-C3 fell again to roughly half that quantity in October, with 1,712 items. That was nonetheless sufficient to provide it the highest spot for the month, nonetheless.
In second place was the Renault Scenic, with 1,675 items, and the Peugeot e-208 took third, with 1,239 items.
Following the earlier two months on the high, the Tesla Mannequin Y dropped to fourth in October, with 1,185 items.
The brand new Renault 5 saved near its September quantity, taking sixth with 782 items. Most others had been acquainted faces, with only one or two exceptions. The brand new Porsche Macan had a robust month in October – relative to its premium price-point – with 422 items and sixteenth spot (its first time within the high 20).
As ordinary, we solely have restricted mannequin information from the French market, so we will’t detect new fashions which can have debuted previously month. If of any debutants, please tell us within the feedback under.
Let’s get an replace on the 3-month rankings:
After robust deliveries in August and September, the Tesla Mannequin Y nonetheless has a wholesome lead within the 3-month chart, regardless of a extra modest October. With two respectable months beneath its belt, the brand new Citroen e-C3 is now in a strong second place, comfortably forward of the Renault Scenic, and Peugeot e-208, that are intently competing for third spot.
Additional again, the Renault 5 has additionally executed nicely to climb to tenth after solely two months of quantity gross sales. If it continues on this development, it could be a part of the highest 5 within the subsequent month or two.
When will the brand new (and much more reasonably priced) Renault 4 debut in Renault’s residence market? My tea leaves are suggesting early 2025, however please leap within the feedback you probably have native information.
Outlook
Regardless of the supply debuts of the a lot anticipated Citroen e-C3, and Renault 5, the French BEV market continues to be considerably down in quantity YoY, a deeply disappointing end result. One suspects that producers could already be beginning to slow-pedal the supply of BEV volumes for the rest of 2024, with a view to launch these volumes in 2025, when EU rules require tighter fleet common emissions to be met.
The shrinking YoY auto market is roughly in tune with the broader French economic system, whose Q3 2024 gross output was reported to be 1.3% up YoYa slight enchancment over Q2 (1.0%), however removed from the ~2.5% annual development of the late ‘90s and early 2000s. Inflation was roughly flat at 1.2%, the rate of interest was 3.4%, and manufacturing PMI was flat at 44.5 factors.
Do you agree with me that we received’t see constant annual development return to the French BEV market till 2025, when the subsequent spherical of emissions tightening rules come into impact? Which mannequin debuts are you trying ahead to? A you planning to get into an EV in France within the close to future? Please tell us within the feedback part under.
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