How Is China’s Relationship With USA (& Tesla) Going To Change On Cleantech?

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Let’s simply begin this off by saying that Donald Trump doesn’t have a whole lot of deep longstanding beliefs on subjects that don’t immediately concern him. And he’s some of the transactional politicians I’ve ever seen, in a world in fact the place politicians are exceptionally transactional. We assume many issues on Trump primarily based on the previous, however a few issues can change and he can flip in one other path. If he suppose he can get one thing from you, he can change his “beliefs” 100% and even 200% and go in one other path.

After which we’ve bought Elon Musk, who is seemingly not all that a lot totally different. Properly, that is clearly the place to start out. Whereas Donald Trump has talked very critically and combatively about China for a number of years, Elon Musk has been very constructive about China and has now primarily based half of Tesla’s international manufacturing capability there. Tesla was the primary automaker of any form given permission to construct its personal manufacturing unit there with no three way partnership with a Chinese language firm. Clearly, he has been granted particular consideration and favors in China.

So, what occurs now if Musk, who’s a key a part of Trump’s workforce now, is standing by Trump whereas he’s trashing China? What occurs if Trump does go ahead with greater tariffs on Chinese language-produced merchandise? Is Tesla’s place in China threatened if Trump doesn’t play good on China? Frankly, with the flick of a swap or one telephone name, Tesla’s manufacturing and gross sales in China may very well be demolished. Maybe President Xi Jinping wouldn’t go that route. Or maybe he would.

However let’s assume one thing else. Let’s assume Musk will get Trump to melt his rhetoric and method on China. Let’s say Musk in some way transfers who deferential and respectful he’s to Xi Jinping on to Trump and Trump begins treating Xi Jinping extra how he treats Vladimir Putin. Then what? How does China’s relationship with the US change? (And let’s not low cost the truth that Trump was just lately having his marketing campaign fundraiser Bibles made in China.)

This text was triggered by information I noticed this morning that Xi Jinping has referred to as to congratulate Trump. “Xi urges China, U.S. to manage differences properly,” Reuters reviews. “Xi calls for mutual respect, strengthened dialogue.” Plainly Xi want to have a greater relationship with the US once more, and, frankly, are any of Trump’s fanatical cult followers going to care if Trump turns 180 levels on China? Do any of them care if he’s pro-tariff or anti-tariff with China? Trump campaigned partly on placing large tariffs on Chinese language items, and stubbornly mentioned this wouldn’t increase costs for People, however some segments of the stock market are already reacting negatively to thatand we all know Trump doesn’t need to be unpopular, particularly on Wall Road. Additionally, Reuters notes, “China faces major growth risks from threatened tariffs of 60%.” Xi Jinping could also be further eager to “find a solution” with Trump and play no matter silly flattery sport Trump needs to keep away from a rising commerce battle. Might Musk persuade Trump to go this route? What anti-China persons are on Trump’s workforce who’ve a much bigger voice with him?

In fact, as somebody I talked to right this moment who was fascinated by these identical issues famous, Trump needs to be the focus and get the reward for all the pieces. He and Musk aligned to attain a standard objective, however will Trump get uninterested in him, bored of him (he has reportedly referred to as Musk boring and peculiar in non-public), and irritated by him taking his highlight and interfering together with his plans for China? Will Musk quickly discover what numerous others have discovered, that all the pieces Trump touches dies and rots? Or is that this an alliance and bromance that can rising through the subsequent 4 years?

Assuming Trump modifications course on China, what may that imply extra broadly? Will tariffs on EVs and photo voltaic panels come down? Will Chinese language EVs lastly come to America and destroy complacent and distracted American automakers? Musk has predicted that might occur and definitely wouldn’t care; he might even invite it. Trump presumably hasn’t gotten the reward and assist from GM and Ford that he’d like, and definitely not from the United Auto Employees union, an arch nemesis of Elon Musk. Maybe he’d change course and fortunately let Chinese language automakers are available and threaten the US auto business.

All of these EV battery vegetation, photo voltaic panel factories, EV battery mineral mines and refineries that have been anticipated to assist rebuild working class, blue collar management within the US — are they going to be lifeless within the water if Trump lets the Chinese language in with 0% tariffs?

I don’t suppose anybody actually is aware of the place all of this goes. Quite a lot of it may merely come down to private dynamics between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. They appear rosy in the meanwhile. However they haven’t at all times been.

In 2022, Musk mentioned that it was “time for Trump to hang up his hat & sail into the sunset.” And Trump responded on Reality Social:

“When Elon Musk came to the White House asking me for help on all of his many subsidized projects, whether it’s electric cars that don’t drive long enough, driverless cars that crash, or rocketships to nowhere, without which subsidies he’d be worthless, and telling me how he was a big Trump fan and Republican, I could have said, ‘drop to your knees and beg,’ and he would have done it.”

Who received that debate?

“Now Elon should focus on getting himself out of the Twitter mess because he could owe $44 billion for something that’s perhaps worthless,” Trump added. Properly, it’s a must to say Trump was extra proper than flawed on that as nicely — from a monetary perspective. Nevertheless, from a political perspective, Twitter/X has in all probability proved fairly worthwhile to Musk. Let’s see the place issues go from right here, although.

Coming again to the China–US matter, China Day by daya state-run newspaper, added: “new beginning in China-US relations, if the chance that has been offered is not wasted.”