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The opposite day I recorded the annual predictions wrap-up with Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid of Redefining Power. I’d joined the enjoyable final 12 months for the primary time after beginning up the Redefining Power—Tech sub-channel, judging their predictions from the earlier 12 months and including predictions of my very own. One in every of my predictions for 2025 was that there was going to be a massacre in hydrogen for transportation.
It’s not going to assist that it’s illegal to call hydrogen trucks, ferries, or rail zero emissions and even low-emissions in North America, Europe, or Australia, with each Canada and the EU permitting non-governmental organizations to carry fees. In any case, hydrogen in transportation is definitely fairly excessive emissions. In the absolute best case, it’s many multiples of battery or grid-tied electrical, and in common instances near diesel. In some instances, it’s worse than diesel.
Why? Effectively, manufacturing hydrogen, in the absolute best situation, requires about 3 times as a lot inexperienced electrical energy as simply utilizing the electrical energy in automobiles by way of batteries, so no matter emissions are associated to the electrical energy are tripled. Additionally, hydrogen is a greenhouse gasoline, albeit not directly by stopping the methane in pure gasoline or burped out of cows from degrading, with 13 to 37 occasions the efficiency of carbon dioxide. And because the smallest or second smallest molecule — relying on whether or not you ask chemists or physicists — and on the pressures required to have sufficient of it in a single place to do something helpful, it leaks. Each time it strikes from container to container or piece of kit to piece of kit, a bit leaks. When it’s liquified for long-distance trucking, for instance, it turns again right into a gasoline on the highway and will get vented.
The mix implies that for hydrogen-powered automobiles, a mean of 10% of the hydrogen is prone to be vented from manufacturing to stepping into the gas cell.
This isn’t new information, by the best way. In 1976, Paul Crutzen (a Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist) and Dieter Ehhalt had been among the many first to suggest that hydrogen may not directly affect the ambiance by interacting with the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH is essential in regulating methane’s lifetime within the ambiance. Hydrogen competes with methane for OH, extending methane’s atmospheric lifespan, thereby rising its greenhouse impact. In a pivotal 2001 research, Richard Derwent and colleagues quantified how hydrogen leakage could indirectly increase methane levels by decreasing OH concentrations. The 2023 multi-author Sand et al research revealed in Nature solely clarified how bad the problem wasnot that there was an issue.
Industrial use of hydrogen within the twentieth century noticed quite a few explosions linked to leaks, significantly within the rising oil refining and chemical processing sectors of the 1910s and Twenties. Varied industrial accidents led to security rules about detection, air flow, and the like. That hydrogen leaks is extremely well-known. It’s minimized as a lot as attainable in trade as a result of it’s costly, however it’s principally been a matter of attempting to stop folks from dying or being injured, so correct estimates of leakage charges have been few and much between.
However now the info is coming in. A hydrogen refueling station in California was seeing 35% leakage charges and it took years of remediation and fixes to carry it right down to 2% to 10% leakage, simply on the website. A hydrogen electrolysis and refueling plant in Europe was seeing over 2% to 4% leakage. A US DOE report on hydrogen boil-off made it clear that even very high-volume refueling stations refilled with liquid hydrogen would see 2% losses simply from that a part of the worth chain.
Mainly, you need to make hydrogen in industrial-scale electrolysis crops which are intently monitored and maintained by skilled chemical processing engineering professionals and use the hydrogen on the similar location and instantly as a feedstock within the manufacturing of one thing that doesn’t leak to have low leakage charges of the stuff. Make it in a small electrolysis facility at a bus storage or dockside for ferries and the small plant will leak like a sieve. Truck it anyplace and leakage happens. Transferring it from an electrolyzer to a pressurized tank will see leakage. Liquifying it can see leakage. Pumping it right into a truck, ferry, or rail automotive will see leakage.
The very best situation I assessed was a plan to place an electrolyzer beside a bus storage in Winnipeg, which has exceptionally low carbon depth electrical energy, about 1.3 grams per kWh, about pretty much as good because it’s attainable to get. In that situation, between manufacturing and leakage, I estimated {that a} hydrogen gas cell bus would have 15 to 16 occasions the carbon emissions per kilometer as simply utilizing the electrical energy in a battery electrical bus. And Winnipeg discovered that was too costly, and pivoted to a methanol reformer because the plan, asserting falsely that it was low emissions too. In precise reality, as methanol has excessive carbon emissions in manufacturing, a bus crammed with hydrogen produced from methanol would have 3.2 occasions the emissions of a diesel bus.
Naturally, the hydrogen-for-energy crowd haven’t been remotely clear about this drawback. Like the intense inefficiency of hydrogen-for-energy pathways, the fact that inexperienced hydrogen will at all times be costly, and the unreliability of gas cells, most of them are in denial. Those that aren’t in denial are those deliberately delaying decarbonization who don’t care.
These realities are catching as much as corporations which were attempting to make hydrogen automobiles, therefore my prediction for subsequent 12 months. I’m fairly positive that no less than certainly one of Plug Energy, FuelCell Power, or Ballard will lastly disappear, probably all three. They’re buying and selling for pennies on the greenback in comparison with the 2021 miniblip, by no means thoughts the early 2000 maxiblip. Ballard Energy has by no means made a revenue, losing an average of $55 million annually since 2000, $1.3 billion in whole. Even the hydrogen trustworthy ultimately will minimize their losses, eat the capital good points loss for tax breaks, and put money into one thing helpful.
I anticipate that no less than one of many main truck and bus corporations that’s attempting to do each battery electrical and hydrogen will comply with Quantron into bankruptcyin all probability Van Hool or New Flyer. As I famous, hydrogen is interesting due to larger unit costs per car, however each hydrogen truck or bus a agency sells possible costs it 3–5 unit sales of battery electric vehicles due to extra company overhead, failure to enhance battery electrical automobiles to be aggressive, and deeply sad clients. It’s a recipe for market share loss, not achieve.
No less than one main western bus producer will abandon hydrogen gas cell buses, possibly Solaris. Norway will lastly cease attempting to construct hydrogen ferries and change the single operational hydrogen ferry — 2x the emissions of a diesel ferry, 40x the emissions of a battery electrical ferry on the identical route, 10x the vitality price of a battery electrical ferry — with battery electrical.
However Christmas got here early for this prediction. Exit Hyzon from the scene. It was based in 2020 as a spin-off of Horizon Gasoline Cell Applied sciences, specializing in heavy-duty industrial purposes corresponding to vehicles and buses. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, the corporate developed proprietary gas cell programs focusing on larger energy density and quicker refueling occasions. With operations spanning Europe, Asia, and Australia, Hyzon collaborated with native companions in a useless try and construct hydrogen ecosystems, together with refueling infrastructure, to help FCEV adoption. Regardless of all the issues listed above and the failures to determine hydrogen ecosystems, Hyzon cast forward, signing agreements for fleet deployments and collaborating in pilot tasks worldwide. I’d have included Horizon on the inventory chart above, by the best way, however it’s privately held not publicly traded so it’s solely shedding cash for its personal buyers, like mining big Anglo American.
Now all of these contracts and agreements are definitely worth the paper that they’re printed on, nothing.
Hyzon filed for Chapter 11 chapter safety on December twentieth of 2024. The submitting follows a chronic interval of economic instability, operational challenges, and restructuring efforts geared toward stabilizing the corporate. Hyzon’s determination to file for chapter mirrored its incapacity to safe enough financing or implement efficient strategic alternate options, regardless of earlier efforts to downsize its operations in markets just like the Netherlands and Australia. The corporate had additionally been coping with reputational harm stemming from a settlement with the SEC in 2023 over allegations of deceptive buyers.
What was that final half? Oh, in fact, Hyzon was a particular objective acquisition firm (SPAC), and like most of these Wall Avenue bro enriching automobiles, was a scam to dupe money out of retail investors. Hyzon was on my 2022 checklist of cleantech SPACs that had been going to finish badly. The chart above is of 56 cleantech SPAC corporations whose shares had been pumped then dumped by the Wall Avenue bros. About 60% of them had SEC fees in opposition to them. A number of them are heading for chapter, saddled with absurdly inflated expectations and much too little capital because the Wall Avenue bros took as a lot as 65% of it in some offers. After pumping, Hyzon was briefly value $850 per share. Now it’s inventory, quickly to be delisted, is value $1.12. The Wall Avenue bros made out like bandits.
Hydrogen and hydrogen transportation was a theme amongst SPACs. Nikola Company went public in June 2020 by way of a SPAC merger with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp., valued at roughly $3.3 billion. Shortly after, the corporate confronted fraud allegations from the aptly named Hindenburg Analysis in September 2020, claiming Nikola had misled buyers about its know-how and capabilities. Investigations by the SEC and DOJ adopted, resulting in the conviction of founder Trevor Milton in 2022 on three counts of fraud. Nikola agreed to pay a $125 million high-quality in 2021 to settle SEC fees for deceiving buyers by way of deceptive public statements.
Who doesn’t keep in mind Nikola’s beautiful video of a hydrogen truck driving lengthy a freeway that was faked by towing a truck to the highest of a hill and letting it roll down from there? Par for the course for hydrogen transportation performs.
Hyzon Motors misled buyers by making false statements about its enterprise relationships and car gross sales. The corporate falsely claimed to have delivered its first hydrogen gas cell electrical car in July 2021, even releasing a deceptive video suggesting the car was operational on hydrogen when it was not outfitted to take action. Moreover, Hyzon reported promoting 87 FCEVs in 2021, when in actuality, no such gross sales had occurred that 12 months. These actions led to settled fraud fees by the SEC in September 2023.
However now its false claims — “Delivering heavy duty transport, without emissions” – are gone. No less than it gained’t be charged with with false promoting for its greenwashing, so there’s that, I assume. As I at all times say to good engineers and others in hydrogen corporations, get out now or no less than begin getting out. It’s going to finish badly and also you aren’t truly doing something for the setting.
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