Report highlights potential of sustainable fuels in Latin American aviation

In accordance with the Worldwide Power Company, aviation accounts for about 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions, and aviation emissions are anticipated to double by mid-century as demand for home and worldwide air journey rises. To sharply scale back emissions in alignment with the Paris Settlement’s long-term objective to maintain international warming beneath 1.5°C, the Worldwide Air Transport Affiliation (IATA) has set a objective to attain net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Which raises the query: Are there technologically possible and economically viable methods to succeed in that objective throughout the subsequent 25 years?

To start to handle that query, a crew of researchers on the MIT Heart for Sustainability Science and Technique (CS3) and the MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Surroundings has spent the previous yr analyzing aviation decarbonization choices in Latin America, the place air journey is anticipated to greater than triple by 2050 and thereby double right now’s aviation-related emissions within the area.

Chief amongst these choices is the event and deployment of sustainable aviation fuel. Presently produced from low- and zero-carbon sources (feedstock) together with municipal waste and non-food crops, and requiring virtually no alteration of plane methods or refueling infrastructure, sustainable aviation gasoline (SAF) has the potential to carry out simply in addition to petroleum-based jet gasoline with as low as 20% of its carbon footprint.

Targeted on Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru, the researchers assessed SAF feedstock availability, the prices of corresponding SAF pathways, and the way SAF deployment would probably influence gasoline use, costs, emissions, and aviation demand in every nation. Additionally they explored how effectivity enhancements and market-based mechanisms may assist the area to succeed in decarbonization targets. The crew’s findings are printed in a CS3 Special Report.

SAF emissions, prices, and sources

Beneath an formidable emissions mitigation state of affairs designed to cap international warming at 1.5°C and lift the speed of SAF use in Latin America to 65% by 2050, the researchers projected aviation emissions to be lowered by about 60% in 2050 in comparison with a state of affairs through which present climate policies usually are not strengthened. To attain net-zero emissions by 2050, different measures could be required, comparable to enhancements in operational and air visitors efficiencies, airplane fleet renewal, various types of propulsion, and carbon offsets and removals.

As of 2024, jet gasoline costs in Latin America are round $0.70 per liter. Primarily based on the present availability of feedstocks, the researchers projected SAF prices throughout the six nations studied to vary from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter. They cautioned that elevated gasoline costs may have an effect on working prices of the aviation sector and total aviation demand until methods to handle worth will increase are carried out.

Beneath the 1.5°C state of affairs, the overall cumulative capital investments required to construct new SAF producing crops between 2025 and 2050 had been estimated at $204 billion for the six nations (starting from $5 billion in Ecuador to $84 billion in Brazil). The researchers recognized sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol-to-jet gasoline, palm oil- and soybean-based hydro-processed esters and fatty acids as essentially the most promising feedstock sources within the close to time period for SAF manufacturing in Latin America.

“Our findings show that SAF offers a significant decarbonization pathway, which must be combined with an economy-wide emissions mitigation policy that uses market-based mechanisms to offset the remaining emissions,” says Sergey Paltsev, lead writer of the report, MIT CS3 deputy director, and senior analysis scientist on the MIT Power Initiative.

Suggestions

The researchers concluded the report with suggestions for nationwide policymakers and aviation business leaders in Latin America.

They burdened that government policy and regulatory mechanisms will likely be wanted to create ample circumstances to draw SAF investments within the area and make SAF commercially viable because the aviation business decarbonizes operations. With out applicable coverage frameworks, SAF necessities will have an effect on the price of air journey. For gasoline producers, steady, long-term-oriented insurance policies and rules will likely be wanted to create sturdy provide chains, construct demand for establishing economies of scale, and develop modern pathways for producing SAF.

Lastly, the analysis crew advisable a region-wide collaboration in designing SAF insurance policies. A unified decarbonization technique amongst all nations within the area will assist guarantee competitiveness, economies of scale, and achievement of long-term carbon emissions-reduction targets.

“Regional feedstock availability and costs make Latin America a potential major player in SAF production,” says Angelo Gurgel, a principal analysis scientist at MIT CS3 and co-author of the examine. “SAF requirements, combined with government support mechanisms, will ensure sustainable decarbonization while enhancing the region’s connectivity and the ability of disadvantaged communities to access air transport.”

This story is republished courtesy of MIT Information (web.mit.edu/newsoffice/), a preferred web site that covers information about MIT analysis, innovation and instructing.