How Many Customers Can Rivian Steal From Tesla?

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Final Up to date on: twenty seventh February 2025, 02:27 am

I used to be at a Tesla Supercharger as we speak, and as I used to be about to go away, I noticed a Rivian R1S related to one of many Supercharger stalls. This can be a V2 Supercharger station, and my understanding is that no non-Teslas can Supercharger on V2 Superchargers, however I additionally noticed a Mercedes-Maybach EQS attempting to Supercharge at this station final week (seemingly unsuccessfully, however I left earlier than remaining affirmation) and routinely have folks with EV rental automobiles coming by and asking about charging there. So, I walked as much as the Rivian R1S to see how issues had been going and to ask if she was in a position to cost. It turned out it wasn’t working, however she had charged there together with her Rivian a very long time again. What she and I each figured is there was a brief time period when the stations had been open to any EVs to cost, however now that issues have been locked down with NACS and the software program has been superior to accommodate non-Teslas at Superchargers and observe them, non-Teslas can now not cost at this (or any V2) Superchargers.

Nevertheless, that’s a protracted intro to get to a different matter. Speaking together with her for a couple of minutes, I discovered that she and her husband had owned three Teslas beforehand, however now she has the Rivian R1S and her husband has the Rivian R1T. A good friend of hers had switched to Rivian earlier than them.

The principle cause for making the swap appeared to be a quite common one — Rivians are simply a lot nicer and extra refined, notably the inside, however in keeping with this girl, additionally the drive high quality. Once I drove and rode in a Rivian R1T a few 12 months and a half in the past, the a lot nicer inside — together with infotainment screens — struck me instantly. When mentioning it to the proprietor, who was additionally a Rivian worker, he mentioned that was a quite common response from Tesla homeowners.

Moreover, this girl (sorry, I didn’t get her title), famous with enthusiasm that the R1S additionally price lower than her earlier Tesla Mannequin X! That appeared to be one other main promoting level for her. Lastly, she lives in Tampa, and Rivian had simply opened a service middle in Tampa earlier than they determined to make the swap. That was a clincher for her, as she didn’t wish to should go to Orlando for service if wanted, and that might have been the case earlier than the Tampa service middle opened.

She didn’t point out something about politics or Elon Musk, and, sadly, I didn’t ask when she and her husband made the swap. Nevertheless, given their expertise with the autos and her religion in Rivian executives/administration, she was optimistic the corporate would ultimately turn out to be worthwhile. In fact, that each one depends on the R2 and even perhaps R3. It’s a hot topic of discussion as a result of nobody actually is aware of what the longer term holds for Rivian.

Contemplating the entire Rivian execs above, I simply bought to pondering, what number of clients may Rivian take away from Tesla? Underneath my article yesterday about Rivian’s inventory value, latest shareholder convention name, and execs & cons, one reader (“Solar Guy“) commented, “Well, Rivian may be able to steal Tesla buyers who are boycotting the company due to Musk. I contacted Rivian myself just last week about buying an R1S, but told them I didn’t want to buy a car without an autopilot that worked on all roads like my 10 yr old Tesla can. So … I agree they need to get theirs working better. I disagree it needs to be as good as Teslas FSD system though. I’m going to buy nothing until a non Tesla option with a good autopilot is on the market.”

Now we have seen numerous feedback from longtime Tesla followers, homeowners, and shareholders who’ve sworn off shopping for a/one other Tesla except Elon Musk leaves the corporate. I’ve met others in “real life.” Tesla saw its sales decline in 2024 compared to 2023and 2025 seems to be starting out even worse. As Elon Musk will get increasingly excessive politically (and, seemingly, spends almost all of his time working on non-Tesla matters), many people expect Tesla will lose a lot of sales. If that’s the case, what number of clients may Rivian take from Tesla?…

How many individuals will take a look at a Rivian every now and then uncover, “Oh, wow, this is really nice!” What number of will now fortunately swap due to Supercharger entry? (Whereas the Rivian couldn’t cost at this V2 Supercharger, there’s one other newer Supercharger a half an hour away the place I routinely see different EVs, together with Rivians, charging.) What number of will swap as Rivian improves its ADAS (a key speaking level on Rivian’s convention name)? In fact, the large canine is the R2 (and R3). What number of Tesla clients will soar ship, or what number of potential Tesla patrons will skip Tesla, as soon as the R2 and R3 can be found? Additionally, how a lot additional is Elon Musk going to go taking a chainsaw to the US federal authorities, busting down Constitutional doorways and democratic norms, and siding with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and the remainder of the democratic West? How far more is he going to push folks away from the model? (I virtually requested, “And will the Tesla board do anything to rein him in?” However I’m sure the reply is “no.”) The there’s additionally the attraction of the brand new Mannequin Y, the cheaper Mannequin Q that’s supposedly coming, and even the Cybercab. How a lot will Tesla’s gross sales dominance proceed within the US EV market merely because of the attraction of its merchandise, and likewise a lot of the inhabitants not following political issues for even 5 minutes every week or being apathetic to all of it in terms of purchasing for a automobile?

As you’ll be able to see, there are numerous unknown elements. I need you to attempt to synthesize all of these completely and provide you with an estimate of what number of clients Rivian will steal from Tesla. Personally, there are too many large unknowns and I can’t even provide you with a variety of choices you can select from in a ballot. Additionally, since we will by no means actually verify the outcomes, one thing about operating a ballot on this rubs me the unsuitable approach. However I’d like to learn what you knowledgeable, considerate readers should say on this matter and what number of clients you estimate Rivian will take from Tesla.