Debunking the Myth: Hydrogen’s Abundance Does Not Equal Accessibility

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Saying hydrogen is ample is like saying gold is straightforward to get—it’s on the market, however extracting it’s arduous, costly, and energy-intensive. The issue isn’t shortage; the issue is accessibility.

Hydrogen advocates typically parrot the road that hydrogen is essentially the most ample component within the universe, implying that it’s naturally accessible as a clear gas. That is, at finest, deceptive and, at worst, a deliberate try and obscure the numerous technical and financial boundaries to its widespread adoption. The truth is that whereas hydrogen exists all over the place, it’s not in a usable kind. Extracting it requires important power, and dealing with it calls for pricey infrastructure.

This can be a companion article to the Cranky Stepdad vs Hydrogen for Energy materials. In the same method to John Cook dinner’s Skeptical Sciencethe intent is a fast and catchy debunk, a second degree of element within the Companion to Cranky Stepdad vs Hydrogen for Energyafter which a fuller article because the third degree of element.

Saying hydrogen is ample is like saying gold is straightforward to get—it’s on the market, however you must work arduous to extract it.

This text critically examines the declare that hydrogen is “readily available” by dissecting the power necessities, manufacturing inefficiencies, and infrastructure constraints that make it one of many least accessible power carriers.

The Scientific Actuality: Hydrogen is Not Freely Obtainable

The atomic make-up of the universe doesn’t translate to real-world power options. Hydrogen doesn’t exist as a free fuel on Earth—it’s sure in compounds like water (H₂O) or hydrocarbons (CH₄, C₂H₆). To acquire pure hydrogen, we should break these molecular bonds, and that course of is neither free nor straightforward.

Ocko & Hamburg (2022) emphasize that whereas hydrogen is theoretically ample, its presence in a usable kind is nonexistent. The power required to isolate hydrogen from compounds is substantial, lowering its viability as an power supply.

The Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA) studies that over 96% of world hydrogen manufacturing comes from fossil fuels, primarily via steam methane reforming (SMR). This implies the so-called ample hydrogen remains to be overwhelmingly reliant on carbon-intensive processes.

In response to Glenk & Reichelstein (2019), even underneath optimum situations, producing hydrogen requires huge electrical energy inputs, making it economically impractical in comparison with direct electrification.

Hydrogen abundance is a scientific curiosity, not an argument for its viability as an power supply.

Producing hydrogen in a usable kind requires important power enter. The 2 major strategies are electrolysis and steam methane reforming (SMR), every presenting elementary inefficiencies.

Electrolysis splits water into hydrogen and oxygen utilizing electrical energy. Whereas the idea sounds interesting, the effectivity downside is gigantic. Electrolysis effectivity charges vary from 60% to 80%, that means at the very least 20% of the enter electrical energy is misplaced instantly. Transporting, compressing, and changing hydrogen again to electrical energy by way of gas cells leads to further power losses. By the tip of the chain, over 70% of the unique power is misplaced (IRENA, 2022). The IEA (2021) factors out that for inexperienced hydrogen to be viable, it might require surplus renewable power, which is briefly provide and higher used for direct electrification.

SMR is the first technique for producing hydrogen, accounting for 96% of right this moment’s provide. The method depends on pure fuel and emits important CO₂.

The IEA (2021) estimates that 830 million metric tons of CO₂ are emitted yearly from hydrogen manufacturing—corresponding to the mixed emissions of the UK and Indonesia. Even with carbon seize and storage (CCS), SMR hydrogen stays solely marginally much less carbon-intensive, whereas CCS provides prices and reduces effectivity.

Hydrogen manufacturing is neither free nor inexperienced—it’s both energy-wasteful or fossil-fuel-dependent.

Past manufacturing, hydrogen faces huge boundaries in transportation, storage, and end-use purposes. Hydrogen is the lightest component, that means it has low volumetric power density. Storing it requires excessive compression (700 bar) or liquefaction (-253°C), each of which require power and costly infrastructure (IRENA, 2022). The compression and liquefaction processes alone can eat as much as 40% of the power contained within the hydrogen (DOE, 2020).

Current pure fuel pipelines can not deal with hydrogen with out modification on account of hydrogen embrittlement, which weakens metal infrastructure (IEA, 2021). Changing hydrogen into ammonia or different carriers for transport provides one other 15–30% power loss (IRENA, 2022).

Merely put, even when hydrogen had been ample and low-cost to supply (which it isn’t), getting it the place it must be stays an costly problem.

Advocates of a hydrogen financial system typically ignore the basic financial obstacles. Inexperienced hydrogen prices have been revealed via ultimate funding selections (FIDs) in 2024, with tasks pricing hydrogen at $5 to $9 per kg. In distinction, fossil-based hydrogen stays at $1 to $2 per kg, and we don’t use it for power right this moment as a result of it’s too costly. Including to the problem, BloombergNEF (BNEF) has just lately tripled its 2050 hydrogen price projections, highlighting that manufacturing prices usually are not falling as rapidly as as soon as anticipated. By comparability, electrification—equivalent to battery storage or direct grid use—continues to be considerably extra environment friendly and cost-effective.

Glenk & Reichelstein (2019) conclude that even with declining renewable power costs, hydrogen will stay costlier than direct electrification for many purposes. This isn’t new information, as I and others have been pointing this out for years or a long time, with clear price workups explaining why.

Scaling a hydrogen financial system requires trillions of {dollars} in infrastructure—pipelines, storage, refueling stations—which few traders are prepared to decide to when superior alternate options exist (DOE, 2020).

Hydrogen will not be low-cost, scalable, or freely accessible. It’s an important industrial feedstock that requires decarbonization, not the spine of a clear power future.

The declare that hydrogen is ample and naturally accessible is a pink herring designed to obscure its elementary inefficiencies. The details are clear:

Hydrogen have to be extracted from compounds at excessive power prices. It’s overwhelmingly derived from fossil fuels right this moment. Even when produced by way of electrolysis, it suffers huge power losses. Transporting and storing hydrogen is pricey and technically difficult. The financial case for hydrogen is weak in comparison with direct electrification. Hydrogen has a task to play in hard-to-decarbonize sectors—like metal manufacturing, ammonia synthesis, and long-haul aviation—however as a broad power resolution, it fails each sensible check.

As an alternative of chasing the hydrogen mirage, policymakers and traders ought to give attention to electrification, grid modernization, and battery storage, which supply far superior effectivity and cost-effectiveness. Saying hydrogen is ample is like saying gold is straightforward to get—it’s on the market, however you want a fortune to extract it. The clear power transition wants actual options, not deceptive narratives.

References

• BloombergNEF (BNEF). (2024). Hydrogen market outlook: Price projections tripled for 2050. BloombergNEF.
• Glenk, G., & Reichelstein, S. (2019). Economics of changing renewable energy to hydrogen. Nature Vitality, 4(3), 216–222.
• Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA). (2021). International Hydrogen Evaluate 2021. Paris: IEA.
• Worldwide Renewable Vitality Company (IRENA). (2022). The Function of Inexperienced Hydrogen in Vitality Transitions.
• Dad, IB, & Hamburg, SP (2022). Local weather penalties of hydrogen emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(12), 9349–9368.
• U.S. Division of Vitality (DOE). (2020). Hydrogen Technique: Enabling a Low-Carbon Economic system. Washington, DC: DOE.