Survey Says: Tesla Faces the Most Sales Risk in …

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Final Up to date on: twenty second March 2025, 12:47 am

On Sunday, I printed an article and ballot asking the place Tesla confronted essentially the most danger — the USA, China, or Europe. To be sincere, after that, I forgot about it. Till earlier at present.

Virtually 700 respondents chimed in (thanks for tuning in on Sunday, and for partaking with the ballot). The consequence was robust and definitive. Greater than half of respondents (59%) thought that Tesla confronted essentially the most danger in Europe.

Second was China, with 25% of respondents pondering that’s the place Tesla faces essentially the most gross sales danger. Maybe the vote for China would have been larger after today’s newsor possibly the dearth of proof indicating Elon Musk was briefed by Donald Trump’s Pentagon on a possible warfare plan for China means China would nonetheless simply get 1 / 4 of the vote. Who is aware of?

In final place was the US, which I discover a bit shocking — till I feel once more concerning the gross sales danger in China and the gross sales danger in Europe. Maybe the US actually is the market the place Elon Musk can get away with extra and customers will hold gobbling up Teslas at excessive ranges. Maybe regardless of the fast-growing competitionwe nonetheless lack something just like the EV choices in China and even in Europe, and the Tesla brand is so strong in the US that it’s going to proceed to dominate the market (one thing it doesn’t do in China or Europe). We’ll see, however for now, solely 16% of respondents picked the US because the market the place Tesla faces essentially the most gross sales danger.

Why was Europe the clear winner? It appears there are a number of elements that made it the commonest selection:

• World Battle II may be very current within the minds of Europeans, way more so than it’s with Individuals, and Musk’s haphazard nonchalance concerning the Holocaust — if not his obvious assist for Nazis and family history with Nazis — has actually upset numerous Europeans.
• There’s huge competitors within the EV market in Europe, and nobody wants a Tesla.
• The Trump administration’s choice to desert Ukraine, NATO, and European alliances has additionally disturbed a big portion of the European inhabitants, and everybody is aware of Musk is closely aligned with Trump and condoning principally all the things he does, together with all of this. In actual fact, Musk has made abhorrent feedback about Zelensky and Ukraine on quite a lot of events.

• Musk has supported far-right political events and propaganda in Germany, the UK, and Italy, additional pissing off a lot of Europeans..

Full disclosure: Initially, I couldn’t vote on the ballot. I usually have an opinion, however I used to be torn between the circumstances for every market and couldn’t choose one. It actually is determined by what occurs within the coming months, and I simply couldn’t make sufficient of an informed guess. Nevertheless, one of many feedback did rapidly lean me towards Europe. So, I’ll finish with that remark, from Geoff Willingham:

“Hmmm… in the meanwhile (and clearly that is topic to vary), I feel China goes to be the least-affected by Musks antics within the US… sure, there’s going to be some dislike round Trumps tariffs that can rub off on Musk, and the arising points with FSD in China… however in comparison with the EU and the US, these appear comparatively minor… and the largest risk might be from different firms producing higher / extra fascinating autos… however that might be a steadily decline, not a precipitous drop, imo.

“The US is extraordinarily politicised, and folks there are immediately impacted by Musks actions, however Tesla even have the largest slice of the market, and — as but — there isn’t a lot competitors, so these on the fence or in any other case ‘insulated’ from Musk will most likely find yourself shopping for a Tesla (in the event that they’re contemplating an EV) regardless.

“Thus, I feel the EU could also be on the most danger… we’re immediately feeling the outcomes of his tariffs too (like China), however he’s additionally immediately meddling within the politics of a number of EU nations, and most nations within the EU even have a much more visceral dislike (or stronger) of Fascism, in that we needed to stay by way of it in a means that the US didn’t, simply ~85 years in the past.

“As such, I feel there’s more likely to be a a lot stronger response within the EU than China — and in contrast to the US, we even have far better selection and choices to choose from within the EU, plus (in lots of nations) good alternate options to the SuperCharger community (which was once one of many main promoting factors for Tesla even after different fashions hit characteristic and value parity with Tesla EVs).

“As such, I feel the market ‘most at risk’ would be the EU… though that’s as a proportion of its at present gross sales… whether or not it’s additionally most in danger by way of whole gross sales (reasonably than as a proportion of present gross sales), I’m not so certain — however I feel it possible (for the explanations outlined above).

“But, all this is contingent on Musk not doing something tomorrow that seriously alienates a bigger slice of the US (and/or really hits home for the Chinese, etc).”

Certainly. Geoff coated his bases nicely on the finish there, too. Total, although, I feel his prolonged argument captures why Europe so dominantly gained the ballot. We could evaluate the 2025 outcomes to the 2024 outcomes and declare an precise winner subsequent January?