Europe’s formidable push towards carbon neutrality is quickly changing fossil gas–fired energy era with variable renewable sources (VRE), however this shift is exposing the area to a rising danger of grid instability, energy deficits, and provide shortages. The Power and Turbomachinery Community (ETN World), a world non-profit affiliation centered on advancing gasoline turbine know-how, has warned that Europe’s decarbonization agenda may falter with out speedy and substantial funding in dispatchable energy era, power storage, and grid modernization.
In a recent white paperthe commerce group suggests the area’s flexibility wants will double by 2030 because the area grapples with a surge in demand stemming from elevated electrification in households, business, and mobility. “The daily flexibility need alone is expected to grow by 209 Terawatt-hour (TWh) from 2021—equivalent to adding the yearly electricity consumption of a small European country,” it mentioned. “Looking to 2050, the total requirement for flexibility (daily+weekly+monthly) will have a dramatic fivefold increase,” it predicted. “According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G), the flexibility in energy to support the aforementioned changes is projected to increase by 40%–65% by 2050,” it mentioned. ENTSO-Electrical energy, notably, forecasts a web lower of 107 GW in versatile era capability, primarily from dispatchable thermal generators, by 2030 (Determine 1).
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1. In line with the European Community of Transmission System Operators for Electrical energy (ENTSO-E), Europe’s present versatile era capability is at the moment dominated by dispatchable thermal generators. Thermal turbine capability, nevertheless, is slated to lower beginning this 12 months, primarily owing to financial causes. Courtesy: ETN |
ETN mentioned the area’s core dilemma stems from a “mismatch between instantaneous demand and supply.” To satisfy flexibility necessities, Europe will want a “portfolio of sustainable dispatchable solutions that can provide reliable flexibility services, including load following, peaking, backup capacity (spinning reserve), grid services (rotating inertia, frequency control), and medium-to-long-term storage solutions as well as black start capabilities.”
Batteries are efficient at storing and rapidly offering electrical energy for a brief time period. Whereas pumped hydropower can present longer-term storage, it’s restricted by geographical constraints, the group mentioned. Compressed air storage is restricted by out there reservoir quantity, and whereas Carnot batteries promise power storage at a utility scale with out geographical constraints, “they are still at a low Technology Readiness Level.” Massive-scale underground storage in salt caverns or depleted gasoline fields may present extra versatile alternatives, and for now, “power-to-hydrogen-to-power remains the only viable option for seasonal energy storage at large scale with the current state of technology,” ETN World concludes.
The commerce group has urged European policymakers to enact pressing reforms to increase versatile era by way of incentives, emphasizing dispatchable thermal generators, significantly these able to burning hydrogen and artificial fuels. “Dispatchable thermal turbine-based power generation is well suited to fill this gap with its adaptability to use carbon-neutral fuel,” it mentioned.
“Thermal turbines are a scalable enabling technology that can provide clean and flexible generation, and cover electricity grid requirements from frequency control reserve (FCR) to seasonal flexibility. From modular and flexible open cycle turbines to high efficiency combined cycle turbines, thermal turbines can operate as clean generation options either by using clean fuels—such as sustainable hydrogen or e-fuels—or with the use of post-combustion carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS),” it mentioned. “Such fuels can be stored for long periods of time before reconversion to power and heat through dispatchable thermal turbines.” As well as, thermal generators can complement ultra-fast-response methods like batteries and flywheels, which assist easy intraday fluctuations, it mentioned.
Curiosity in hydrogen and artificial fuels have ramped up in Europe, although availability and price stay main obstacles. The ETN World report notes that whereas full-scale 100%-hydrogen turbine exams are underway, widespread adoption is being stalled by provide chain gaps, insufficient manufacturing capability, and excessive prices. “To build confidence in these solutions and attract future investments, it is essential to conduct large-scale operational testing. Achieving this will require a sufficient and reliable supply of hydrogen to be available in the coming years,” it mentioned. “These two challenges create uncertainties that delay final decisions in the power sector and broader industry regarding investments in low-carbon or carbon-neutral fuels, dispatchable thermal turbine technologies, and CO 2 capture technology options.”
Infrastructure stays the largest bottleneck. The European Union’s (EU’s) hydrogen technique requires 40 GW of electrolyzer capability by 2030, but present hydrogen availability is way beneath demand projections. Hydrogen manufacturing has re-emerged as a key precedence within the wake of geopolitical instability, fossil gas dependency, and the rising penetration of renewables. The 2022 power disaster, pushed by provide shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, uncovered the area’s overreliance on imported fossil fuels and customarily pressured policymakers to speed up the transition to homegrown electrification.
In line with a flagship examine on power safety launched in March by Europe’s energy commerce group Eurelectric, repercussions have been a wake-up name. Whereas Europe was capable of keep era adequacy, affordability collapsed, and system vulnerabilities—together with provide chain dangers, cyber threats, and uncooked materials dependencies—have develop into obviously evident. These challenges have underscored the necessity for a “Security of Supply 2.0” method, which entails integrating power resilience throughout the electrical energy worth chain, Eurelectric suggests.
The examine notes Europe has made important progress in decarbonization—74% of Europe’s electrical energy is now carbon-free. Nevertheless, it suggests the shift towards an electrified economic system presents new safety dangers. By 2050, electrical energy demand will rise by almost 50%, with peak masses growing by 26% as transport, business, and heating sectors electrify, it says. For now, the ability system stays ill-prepared for excessive climate occasions, cyberattacks, and geopolitical provide disruptions, which threaten the reliability of an more and more decentralized grid. The European Fee has estimated that greater than €580 billion in grid investments are required by 2030 to keep away from provide bottlenecks, whereas energy market reforms should guarantee versatile property—akin to dispatchable thermal generators and power storage—are adequately incentivized, the examine notes.
—Sonal Patel is a POWER senior editor (@sonalcpatel, @POWERmagazine).
