EVs Take 24.4% Share In France — Renault 5 Unassailable?

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Final Up to date on: 2nd April 2025, 10:18 am

March’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 24.4% share in France, a drop from 27.9% year-on-year. The YoY baseline was elevated by a pull-forward forward of incentive cut-offs, so the YoY comparability is quickly skewed. On a normalized foundation, BEVs proceed to climb, albeit slowly. PHEVs are down YoY attributable to being newly subjected to weight-based taxes in 2025. Total March auto quantity was 153,844 models, down over 14% YoY. The Renault 5 was as soon as once more the most effective promoting BEV in March, consolidating its recognition.

March’s auto gross sales totals noticed mixed plugin EVs take 24.4% share in France, with 19.0% full battery-electrics (BEVs) and 5.4% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 27.9% mixed, 18.9% BEV and 9.0% PHEV.

As alluded to above, the YoY baseline for BEVs was distorted by a March 2024 pull-forward of gross sales of plenty of fashionable BEV fashions. This was a late rush to seize the acquisition incentive forward of a mid-March cut-off for just about all BEV fashions manufactured outdoors the EU. Widespread fashions just like the Tesla Mannequin 3, Dacia Spring, Kia Niro, MG4, Nissan Ariya, and lots of others had been affected.

If we take a step again, nonetheless, 2025 has seen a gradual however regular improve in BEV market share from 17.4% in January, to 17.9% in February, to 19.0% now in March. The cumulative year-to-date share now stands at 18.2%. As talked about in latest experiences, the deliberate 2025 EU-zone emissions laws had been more likely to suggest a zone-wide share of between 20% and 22% for BEVs, with France anticipated to attain one thing near the zone-wide common.

In early March 2025, nonetheless, EU Fee president Ursula von der Leyen determined to loosen the complete yr 2025 automobile emission targets. Put merely, the proposed loosening basically permits the 2025 goal to now be pooled with the 2027 targets, as a substitute of conforming to the beforehand deliberate step-by-step tightening in every intermediate yr. On the similar time, von der Leyen introduced an 800 billion euro “ReArm Europe” plan, together with scrapping earlier authorities fiscal limits, to encourage prioritising private and non-private focus and investments in direction of the buildout of navy manufacturing capability, at a scale not seen because the Forties. If this goes forward, it’ll doubtlessly have the alternative outcome for EU local weather progress, as militaries sometimes have the heaviest local weather emissions of any group.

The proposed automobile emissions loosening will doubtless disrupt the rising trajectory of 2025 BEV progress in France (and within the wider EU area). Then again, considerably reasonably priced small-and-competent BEVs now exist within the European market, because of the beforehand deliberate guidelines (earlier than the March 2025 change of course). Put merely — the cat is already out of the bag, within the type of the Citroen e-C3, the Renault 5, the Hyundai Inster, and lots of others. Will customers who’ve made plans “at long last” to purchase these sorts of BEVs within the coming months now swap their consideration again to ICE-powered autos? Let me know within the feedback.

The excellent news as of the March outcomes is that, primarily because of their being substituted by HEVs and MHEVs, ICE-only powertrains had been down considerably in YoY quantity and share. Diesel-only quantity fell from 13,532 models to six,463 models, and to a report low share of 4.2%. Petrol-only quantity fell from 58,895 all the way down to 32,867, and share fell to 21.4% — additionally a report low.

France’s Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Renault 5 was as soon as once more France’s finest promoting BEV mannequin in March, with 3,340 models registered. That is its third pole place prior to now 5 months (and within the different two months, it positioned second)!

Within the runner-up place was the Tesla Mannequin Y, with 2,318 models registered, a few of that are doubtless the refreshed model.

In third was the Renault Scenic, with 2,225 models.

The highest 5 had been all the identical faces as final month, with just a few minor shuffles of place.

In actual fact, apart from common month-by-month variations, the one main change within the high 20 rating was the addition of the brand new Fiat (“Grande”) Panda, which joined for the primary time, in nineteenth, promoting 447 models. Because of restricted knowledge, we are able to’t say for certain when the Panda debuted within the French market (chime in if you realize), however it’s clearly off to an honest begin.

The diminutive Panda has a size of three,999 mm (barely shorter than its cousin, the Citroen e-C3), and has an MSRP ranging from €23,253 in France. That is yet one more of the brand new small BEVs from Stellantis (Opel, Frontera, Citroen e-C3/Aircross) which sit on the electrified CMP platform.

Let’s now flip to the 3-month chart:

Right here the Renault 5 maintains its latest dominance, and with its third straight month within the high spot (having solely narrowly missed out to the Tesla Mannequin Y in December). Contemplating the Renault solely hit its quantity stride in November, this can be a nice outcome, and indicative of the latent demand for small-and-competent BEVs.

That latent demand is bolstered by the Citroen e-C3 taking the second spot, and having been within the high 3 spots persistently for the previous 7 months, ever since its personal September 2024 debut.

Primarily based on this pattern, inside a few years, the highest 20 BEVs will doubtlessly turn out to be dominated by B-segment and smaller lessons, a lot because the broader French auto market has historically been. This in all probability means a median battery pack dimension of 45 to 50 kWh — which is an environment friendly use of sources. The same sample could maintain for a lot of southern Europe in the long term.

Outlook

Ten out of twelve of the previous months have seen YoY contraction of France’s auto gross sales (by a mean of 6.5% YoY). The broader French financial system continues alongside at solely modest GDP progress of simply 0.6% in Q4 2024 (newest knowledge), with a current forecast of around 0.7% to 0.8% YoY for every quarter of 2025.

Inflation is presently at 0.8%, and rates of interest stand at 2.65%. Manufacturing PMI improved in March to 48.5 factors (the best in two years), from 45.8 in February.

After being delayed within the planning pipeline for a number of years, considerably reasonably priced BEV choices at the moment are coming accessible in Europe, together with within the small-and-simple automobile lessons historically favoured within the French market. With these now “known about” by potential new automobile consumers, it’s exhausting to see how the cat will get put again within the bag at this stage.

With the EU fee’s backpedalling on 2025 emissions, even when legacy auto producers decelerate the supply of those reasonably priced fashions, are customers actually going to change to an ICE automobile as a substitute of ready a bit longer to get their BEV, or maybe flip to manufacturers (BYD, Hyundai, others) which received’t participate on this backpedalling?

What do you consider France’s transition to EVs? Will the latest backpedalling on emissions laws result in yet one more yr of misplaced progress, or is the momentum and latent demand too robust at this level to carry again the transition any longer? Please share your ideas and feedback within the dialogue beneath.