Long-Term Tesla Quarterly Sales Charts & Graphs — They Sting!

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Final Up to date on: fifth April 2025, 03:06 am

One of many large tales of the week has been Tesla’s poor Q1 2025 gross sales numbers, with the model dropping 13% 12 months over 12 months (after already having a YoY gross sales drop in Q1 2024). That is particularly painful for an organization that was imagined to be rising 50% a 12 months on common within the 2020s, in line with CEO Elon Musk (although, he’s been quiet about that beforehand constant prediction currently).

Nevertheless, wanting on the quarterly and YoY figures simply offers a glimpse of the difficulty. Placing collectively the long-term quarterly gross sales charts that I’ve been creating for Tesla prior to now a number of years, the issue stood out to me rather more. Take a look under and see what you assume. Someway, the fact of the drop simply hits rather more these. The drop in gross sales within the context of Tesla’s beforehand gross sales progress actually stings.

As you possibly can see within the chart and graph above, Tesla noticed an unprecedented, large drop in gross sales in Q1 2025. It’s by no means had such a dramatic drop in gross sales — quarter over quarter or 12 months over 12 months. In truth, on a quarterly foundation, Tesla has had virtually no year-over-year gross sales drops. So, the beginning of 2025, particularly on the again of a weak 2024, is placing and signifies to many {that a} shut eye needs to be stored on Tesla gross sales developments in 2025. It’s complete story (traditionally a narrative of progress, large progress) may very well be shifting. Many followers don’t imagine it — or don’t wish to imagine it — nevertheless it’s a transparent risk and there are a couple of large the reason why it may very well be taking place and may very well be the EV story of 2025.

One final word earlier than sharing the remaining charts: Tesla solely stories Mannequin 3 & Mannequin Y gross sales numbers collectively and Mannequin S & Mannequin X & Cybertruck numbers all mixed as nicely. We don’t have exact numbers for every mannequin. (That’s been a large gripe for years, and I believe it’s a bit absurd that an automaker of its dimension isn’t extra clear on mannequin gross sales, however it’s what it’s.) In consequence, to create these charts, I’ve to make use of varied sources and make some assumptions with a view to provide you with model-specific gross sales estimates. These are simply estimates. We’ll get extra knowledge within the coming month and be capable to higher see how the gross sales cut up out by mannequin. Importantly, arising with the estimates for Mannequin Y vs. Mannequin 3 gross sales was particularly troublesome this quarter as a result of new Mannequin Y popping out and Mannequin Y manufacturing traces being shut down for a notable time frame with a view to replace them for the brand new Mannequin Y.

Importantly, whereas there’s some excuse for Mannequin Y gross sales being down, Mannequin 3 gross sales additionally seem like down considerably, and there’s not likely an excuse for that! Altering over the manufacturing traces for the Mannequin Y shouldn’t be affecting the Mannequin 3 like this. Additionally, its debatable whether or not the Mannequin Y ought to actually be going through such a big decline itself regardless of the manufacturing line disruption. However I believe we actually must see what occurs within the subsequent quarter or three to make any strong conclusions on developments for that mannequin.

Whereas it doesn’t stand out within the floor with the graph and chart above, when you consider it for a second, the shortage of gross sales from the Cybertruck is placing. This mannequin was supposed to offer an enormous enhance to Tesla gross sales, the following avenue for ongoing auto gross sales progress for the corporate. Nevertheless it appears to be a dud. It’s virtually invisible right here, and already apparently going within the fallacious path! Yikes. For that matter, Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales are additionally down. That will not be tremendous crucial to the corporate’s story or funds, nevertheless it’s not good! Gross sales volumes had already dropped lots prior to now a number of years, however they obtained to a concerningly low stage in Q1. (And, once more, there’s no respectable justification for this, not like the case Tesla followers and shareholders have been making for the Mannequin Y.)

Now we’ve obtained the cumulative gross sales charts. This primary one, utilizing official numbers, exhibits a shift from exponential progress to, doubtlessly, a flattening of progress. Simply visualizing the place issues go from right here, it’s straightforward to see the road on the prime getting flatter. In fact, that may change with a surge in gross sales from the brand new Mannequin Y (and/or Cybertruck). However, for now, we’ve got an apparent breaking of the historic pattern — even this cumulative gross sales chart.

Utilizing our estimates for the Mannequin 3 versus Mannequin Y gross sales cut up, it’s the same story — only a bit much less pronounced wanting on the Mannequin 3 chart, which isn’t traditionally as spectacular because the Mannequin Y’s.

Does anything vital stand out to you when these charts and graphs? And the place is Tesla going from right here?

To wrap up, under are interactive variations of those charts and graphs, in addition to one additional chart the place you possibly can pop from one mannequin to the following. Take pleasure in! (Observe: these are greatest considered and performed with on an actual pc, not a cellphone.)