Flaws in the Robotaxi Revolution Dream

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Final Up to date on: twenty fifth April 2025, 03:12 am

This isn’t the primary time it’s been mentioned, and it received’t be the final, as a result of the concept of a dramatic robotaxi revolution carries on. And, sure, I’ll admit that I used to be a heavy proponent of that for a very long time. Nonetheless, the purpose we’re making on this piece is that there are some severe flaws in the concept many individuals will change from automotive possession to utilizing robotaxis.

This text was triggered by a reader remark, so let’s simply get to that remark and provides credit score the place credit score’s due.

Beneath my article discussing whether or not Tesla robotaxis would be profit or loss centers“eveee” supplied the next remark:

Are you taking a taxi to work every single day and again? Nope.

What precisely are robotaxis going to interchange? Not buses. Not trains. Rental automobiles?

You already know why it’s actually not severe? As a result of it doesn’t ask what taxis are used for as we speak.

Why don’t taxis already substitute all different types of transportation now?

Why would making taxis cheaper substitute all different types of transportation?

Merely put, taxis can’t substitute all different types of transport. Actually, taxis can’t even substitute automobiles for all makes use of. It’s merely not doable.

Why? There are such a lot of causes. Let’s begin with a easy one.

Visitors Congestion. In each metropolis the place rideshare has been launched and taxi use elevated, site visitors congestion elevated. Why is that? Is it only a coincidence? Nope.

Car Miles Traveled. VMT. Any severe dialogue of transportation contains it. Not a phrase of it right here. Reveals amateurism. Each properly educated transportation skilled is aware of this. Simply why is that essential? For one, taxis drive to choose up passengers. They don’t begin out parked in your driveway earlier than you go to work, they usually don’t park at work while you go residence. They all the time use additional miles to choose up passengers. VMT will increase. Meaning extra congestion as a result of autos are on the highway extra typically.

Right here’s one other one, however its associated. Area. Not outer area. Visitors area. The quantity of area per passenger is highest in a single occupant automotive. Buses, trains, shuttles, stroll, bike, all occupy much less area. There may be solely a lot room on the highway. Extra automobiles, extra site visitors, extra congestion.

Not simply in cities, however on any highway area. Particularly any closely travelled highway, and particularly at intersections. You’ll be able to hit a site visitors jam removed from the town on closely trafficked roads on vacation weekends. Everybody is aware of that or ought to notice it.

Up to now, between VMT and area, its unimaginable to interchange all transport and even simply common automobiles with taxis, as a result of it merely doesn’t work. Its a dumb thought, poorly thought out.

It misses the idea that transportation isn’t just about objects like automobiles or different autos. Its in regards to the transportation system, roads and all, and the way it works.

However sadly, as soon as poor pondering will get going, it hardly ever stops. There may be extra. A lot.. extra.

Simply precisely how do taxis substitute all automobiles with much less taxis? There are explanation why that may by no means occur. How do you transport the identical variety of folks the identical variety of miles with the identical sort of car in the identical period of time and with much less autos? You can not. Its unimaginable. Mathematically and bodily.

The entire argument is bunk. Time is proscribed. You do not need 24 hours to get to work. It must be accomplished in two brief rush hour intervals of time.

That is the Seba impact. Seba talks. Considering stops.

Nice factors. Nonetheless, I’ve received a number of variations on the important thing arguments right here and the place robotaxis have severe drawbacks on the subject of each attracting passengers and making a revenue doing so.

• Because the reader factors out, robotaxis truly add to driving, as they should drive far more to get you from level A to level B after which again to level A later within the day. They should drive from wherever they’re (“point Z”) and get you, then take you the place you need to go, after which drive some other place. That additional driving comes at a price. So, any value benefit from a robotaxi car being shared can truly rapidly get worn out by miles pushed going up quite a bit. (Notice: eveee focuses on additional site visitors congestion when discussing this, however I believe the secret is actually that the additional VMT provides put on & tear and gas use, or value, to the robotaxi in comparison with a privately owned automotive.)
• Alongside the same line, the variety of autos wanted in all probability wouldn’t go down as a lot because it’s typically hyped. We’re all conversant in rush hour, when the biggest portion of persons are driving to or from work and college. All of these folks nonetheless want a automotive on the identical time. So, you possibly can’t say Robotaxi #1 goes to drive each me and my neighbor the place we have to go, slicing down on the variety of autos on the highway, and car possession prices. Robotaxi #1 will drive me and Robotaxi #2 will drive my neighbor. Companies like Uber and Lyft cope with this difficulty by way of surge pricing, or no matter it’s referred to as nowadays. It prices far more to get a journey throughout high-volume intervals. That’s going to stay a core difficulty, and no robodriver goes to eradicate the issue.
• A 3rd level not addressed above is that almost all of us use our automobiles to retailer stuff we’ll want at totally different instances of the day, or on occasion. If we’re going to play tennis after work, we’ve got our tennis luggage within the automotive. Now we’re going to take these out and in of labor, our children’ college, the grocery retailer, and so on.? What about purchasing, by the best way? We regularly buy groceries — for meals or items — and the go away these purchases within the automotive when going elsewhere. Only for my little household of 4, I typically pack the automotive with groceries and family provides in between college runs; physician, orthodontist, and dentist visits; or different errands. Ditching the automotive for robotaxis, I’m now going to convey these luggage and luggage round with me from place to position? Or would I’ve a robotaxi in some way simply await me at every place? (Very unrealistic.) Then there are umbrellas for wet days, sure paperwork, pc luggage, hand sanitizer, snacks, varied drinks, cellphone chargers….

In brief, it simply appears unrealistic that robotaxis are going to take over the world. Sure, they might properly substitute human-driven taxis. That looks as if a given. Nonetheless, the concept they’ll make an enormous portion of automotive homeowners ditch their automotive appears unlikely to ever develop into actuality.