EVs Take 63.3% Share In Sweden – Renault 5 Starts Climbing

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April noticed plugin EVs take 63.3% share in Sweden, up from 56.9% YoY.  This progress was primarily pushed by an increase in BEV volumes, whereas PHEVs additionally skilled a rise. Total auto quantity was 24,292 items, up some 11% YoY. The Volkswagen ID.7 was the best-selling BEV in April.

April’s auto gross sales noticed mixed plugin EVs take 63.3% share in Sweden, with full battery-electrics (BEVs) at 35.2%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 28.1%. These shares evaluate YoY towards 56.9% mixed, with 30.9% BEV, and 26.0% PHEV.

When it comes to gross sales volumeseach BEVs and PHEVs noticed first rate YoY progress, of 26% and 20% respectively. HEVs (up 12%) barely matched the general market’s 11% progress, diesel-only underperformed the market (up simply 9%), and petrol-only was down in quantity (by 6%). Word additionally that gross sales of “other fuels” (principally ethanol ICE) have now evaporated since their tax reclassification (as successfully petrol automobiles), again in January. Maybe unsurprisingly, for now it appears former ethanol-car consumers have migrated to petrol autos as an alternative.

The overwhelming majority of plugless HEVs bought over the previous 15 months have been Toyotas, with round two thirds of all HEV gross sales. In the meantime Toyota contributed lower than 3% of the PHEVs bought, and much lower than 1% of BEVs bought (underneath a thousand items), over the identical interval.

Stepping again, the EV transition continues to be taking place fairly slowly in Sweden. Yr-to-date plugin share is 59.5% (with 33.6% being BEVs). The 2024 YTD determine was 55.2% (30.9% BEV), and the 2023 YTD determine was 56.3% (35.6% BEV). It’s clear that BEVs alone aren’t rising strongly, and thus PHEVs are bolstering the general plugin end result.

The November 2022 cancellation of BEV incentives has put a big brake on progress since. By now, nevertheless, BEVs ought to ideally be standing on their very own ft and much outcompeting same-segment ICE automobiles on TCO, reliability, refinement, and different benefits. They’re doing this in some segments, however plugless autos stay over 40% of the market 12 months so far.

One vital change taking place not too long ago (This fall 2024 onwards) is the European arrival of the brand new era of competent small-and-relatively-affordable BEVs (Renault 5, Citroen e-C3, Hyundai Inster, Leapmotor T03 in some markets), and with the BYD Dolphin Mini (aka Dolphin Surf), and different fashions imminent. Comparatively reasonably priced right here means MSRP ranging from underneath €25k (or ideally underneath €20k). This phase is already beginning to take off in neighbouring Norway, and Sweden will progressively observe go well with.

The truth that non-laggards like Leapmotor and BYD (and Hyundai to some extent) are taking part in on this area ought to make for sturdy volumes and competitors, and thus elevated competence and worth over time. This may have knock-on results in bettering the worth of adjoining segments, and additional enhance BEV share.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Volkswagen ID.7 was one of the best promoting BEV in April, taking up from final month’s chief, the Volvo XC40, which dropped to second. One other Volvo, the EX30, took third place.

The Volkswagen ID.7 has been highly regarded in Sweden (and in Norway), particularly since launching the Avant / Touring / Wagon variant in the summertime of 2024. It has constantly been in Sweden’s high 5 since September.

Whereas a lot of the high 20 are acquainted faces, there are a few notable movers. One is the brand new Audi A6 e-tron, which noticed its highest volumes but, at 237 items, taking eleventh spot (from seventeenth in March), in simply its 4th month of quantity gross sales.

Staying with the Volkswagen Group, one other climber was the brand new Skoda Elroq. The Enyaq’s smaller and extra reasonably priced sibling registered 180 items, and entered the desk in fifteenth place, in simply its third month on sale. Provided that the Enyaq has been constantly standard in Sweden, we are able to count on the brand new Elroq to climb additional nonetheless within the months forward, and sure change into an everyday member of the highest 10.

Exterior the highest 20, the brand new Renault 5 noticed its first month of first rate quantity (probably together with a number of the very first buyer deliveries), with 96 items registered, taking twenty sixth place. That is truly forward of the Renault 5’s volumes in neighbouring Norway (the place its rivals, mentioned beneath, have began first). As alluded to within the dialogue above, might this be the beginning of the small-and-competent period for BEVs in Sweden? Let’s maintain an in depth eye on it.

In the meantime, the little Renault’s shut competitor, the brand new Hyundai Inster, continues to be “in waiting” in Sweden with simply 18 items in April, following on from its 37 unit debut in February (it’s already surpassed 70 common month-to-month items in Norway). It’s a compelling automobile and can give the Renault 5 some wholesome competitors.

The place’s the Citroen e-C3? Though it noticed its first double digit volumes (32 items) in March, and has simply seen a powerful 173 items in neighbouring Norway, the e-C3 has nonetheless not stepped up in Sweden, with simply 16 registrations in April.

Taking a look at Stellantis’ general BEV technique in Sweden – principally “being absent” (solely ~260 passenger BEVs bought 2025 YTD throughout all manufacturers) – don’t maintain your breath on the Citroen e-C3 shortly climbing to vital volumes on this explicit market. If readers have insights into why Stellantis’s BEVs are virtually absent in Sweden (even while its ICE autos promote in first rate quantity), however are plentiful in Norway, tell us. Is that this all about BEV incentives and margins?

Maybe if the B phase actually takes off in Sweden, Stellantis will push the e-C3. Having stated all that, it’s doable that the ~10% bigger (although nonetheless comparatively reasonably priced) Citroen e-C3 Aircross is perhaps a good higher slot in Sweden (and likewise in Norway). This one has not too long ago debuted in its dwelling market of France, although not but in Scandinavia.

There have been no new BEVs making a Swedish debut in April.

Right here’s the 3-month chart:

The Volkswagen ID.7 and Volvo XC40 have been carefully competing over the previous 4 months, with every taking the month-to-month lead twice. As of the newest measurement, the ID.7 is barely forward, however the competitors will little question proceed.

The Tesla Mannequin Y took third, on the energy of first rate February and March volumes. The Juniper refresh is beginning to arrive, with present supply wait occasions of roughly 6 to 10 weeks (June or July). Let’s control its supply ramp over the subsequent few months, and see whether or not it could actually regain its former pole place.

Additional again, the Kia EV3 took its highest place with fifth (from sixth in final month’s trailing-3), a terrific end result contemplating its current November quantity debut.

The Audi A6 e-tron has joined the highest 20 for the primary time, in seventeenth, a superb end result, let’s see whether it is sustained. On present trajectory, the Skoda Elroq ought to be a part of the highest 20 by the tip of Q2.

Outlook

The 11% YoY progress in Sweden’s auto market is first rate, although volumes are nonetheless far down from 2015-2019 norms. The macroeconomic figures present a slowdown of YoY GDP growth to 1.1% in Q1 2025down from a This fall 2024 determine of two.4%. Inflation diminished additional to 0.3%, and rates of interest remained at 2.25%. Manufacturing PMI once more improved barely to 54.2 factors in April, from 53.8 factors in March.

As you might have gathered, I’m now principally thinking about seeing change within the reasonably priced finish of the market. The vast majority of the petrol-only autos nonetheless bought are B and C phase autos (VW Golf, Peugeot 2008, Kia Ceed, VW T-Roc, Dacia Sandero, Renault Clio, Kia Picanto, and so on), and it is a key space through which BEVs must get extra aggressive.

The Kia EV3 and Volvo EX30 have made a good impression right here, however aren’t precisely reasonably priced. The Citroen e-C3 (and the Aircross variant), the Hyundai Inster, the Renault 5, and the upcoming BYD Dolphin Surf (previously  “Mini”), and others, have the potential to displace many extra remaining ICE gross sales.

What are your ideas on Sweden’s EV transition? Which new fashions do you assume will displace remaining ICE gross sales most strongly within the 12 months or so forward? Please be a part of within the dialogue within the feedback beneath.