Will Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks Just Follow The Hydrogen Car Storyline?

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A decade in the past, it was frequent to have lots of press releases, auto government statements, and debates about the way forward for hydrogen-powered vehicles. Many individuals believed they had been the long run, not battery-electric vehicles. The debates raged and raged. We wrote numerous articles on the subject.

Now, that has all however died off. (Sadly, there are still people throwing away money to fund foolish hydrogen car programs.) The market has clarified what was clear to a few of us a decade in the past however actually not clear to many others — hydrogen-powered vehicles don’t make sense, they usually can’t compete available in the market in consequence. There are a number of massive causes for this, however there’s actually no have to get into that any extra. Or, properly, nearly no want. (See story linked above.)

That stated, there are nonetheless lots of discussions, trials, and car improvement packages for hydrogen-powered vehicles. A number of articles and feedback from a few weeks in the past introduced me to consider this and stimulated the query within the headline. Will hydrogen gasoline cell vehicles simply find yourself following the hydrogen automobile storyline and find yourself a failed trade in 5 to 10 years?

There have been arguments for why hydrogen-powered vehicles ought to be aggressive, and explanation why battery-electric vehicles are a much bigger problem than battery-electric vehicles — particularly on very long-distance routes. Nonetheless, battery expertise retains enhancing quickly, and options for battery-electric vehicles are clear. In the meantime, hydrogen car nonetheless face some critical challenges. In idea, hydrogen can compete. However in apply, available in the market, do hydrogen vehicles actually stand any likelihood?

If battery prices hold coming down — as anticipated — and correct charging hubs for heavy-duty electrical automobiles get developed, battery-electric vehicles appear set to win the day. They are going to be profit from being straightforward, established applied sciences whose cousins have hit the mass market on the passenger automobile gross sales — and there’s all method of shared provide chains, restore networks, charging infrastructure, and human familiarity that present a lift in that case. In the meantime, the hydrogen provide chain? Hydrogen leakage issues? Delivery hydrogen all over the world? The excessive value of hydrogen powertrains? The smaller and smaller window of entry as battery-electric vehicles scale up? The restricted hydrogen fueling trade and infrastructure? It’s straightforward to see a path for battery-electric vehicles. It’s getting more durable to see one for hydrogen-powered vehicles. (In fact, some scientists, analysts, and consultants have been saying this all alongside.)

This 12 months, I’ve been reporting on the explosion in BYD electrical truck gross sales. See “BYD Electric Truck Sales Up 1,195%” for the most recent report. BYD is now promoting hundreds of battery-electric vehicles a month. Firms are shopping for them for clear causes, they usually hold shopping for them — increasingly more. Apparently, they already make lots of sense. Then there are legacy truck makers — from Volvo to Daimler — which can be getting critical about battery-electric vehicles. I’m sensing a development, and it feels lots just like the development towards battery-electric vehicles that picked up steam (er, electrons) a decade in the past. We’ll see the place issues go.