The Energy Transition is Slowed by Growth in Consumption

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Think about you’re a runner in a 400-metre race. You velocity across the ultimate bend solely to see the officers working away down the observe with the ending tape. You’re a sturdy runner and can catch them, ultimately, however not in a quick time. That is the scenario of renewable vitality, attempting to overhaul rising vitality consumption with the intention to exchange all fossil vitality use earlier than planet Earth crosses a number of local weather tipping factors. Local weather science means that we’re already close to several climate tipping points.

Renewable vitality is a robust runner. Its progress price has far exceeded that of world vitality consumption. However it has began from a low base and so its absolute progress, in exajoules per yr, has to date been lower than that of consumption.

“Houston, we have a problem!”

Particularly, utilizing data from the International Energy Agencyin yr 2010, fossil fuels contributed 80% of world complete ultimate vitality consumption (TFEC). Over the subsequent 12 years, renewable electrical energy era grew by 104%, corresponding to fifteen.8 exajoules (EJ). However, in 2022 (and in addition again in 2000) fossil fuels nonetheless contributed about 80% of world TFEC. Over the identical interval, TFEC had grown by 15%, akin to 27 EJ, double absolutely the progress of renewable vitality.

A lot of the progress in TFEC was in transportation and combustion heating taken collectively, and it was nearly completely fossil fuelled. Ultimately, nearly all transportation and combustion heating shall be changed by renewable electrical energy immediately as electrical energy, with the rest (e.g., long-distance air journey) equipped not directly by inexperienced hydrogen or ammonia. However, over 2010–2022, even world renewable electrical energy era (progress 15.8 EJ) didn’t sustain with complete world electrical energy era (progress 27 EJ) in absolute phrases.

The issue shouldn’t be the fault of renewable vitality, whose progress has exceeded, and continues to exceed, all expectations. Moreover, the issue can’t be solved by nuclear vitality, which takes a number of occasions as lengthy to construct than wind and photo voltaic firmed with battery storage. The issue is the expansion in consumption.

Eventualities for the vitality transition

A part of the answer is to cut back vitality demand by way of vitality effectivity, however will this be sufficient? To achieve some understanding of the problem for demand discount, we take into account three situations for changing the worldwide contribution to TFEC by renewable electrical energy by 2050. Every situation has a decrease TFEC in 2050, akin to more and more giant reductions in vitality consumption. The problem is concurrently to affect all vitality consumption (i.e., transportation and combustion heating) whereas transitioning all electrical energy to renewables by 2050.

The first two scenarios are from the Worldwide Power Company (IEA): the Said Insurance policies State of affairs (STEPS) during which TFEC grows to 536 EJ at 2050 and the Web Zero Emissions (NZE) situation during which TFEC declines from its precise worth of 422 EJ in 2022 to 343 EJ in 2050. The IEA describes the latter as a “normative” situation and consists of some modest behavioural adjustments in it.

I’ve taken the baseline progress price of renewable vitality to be the exceptionally excessive progress from 2021 to 2022, which was 2.286 EJ/yr, 1.74 occasions its common progress price from 2010 to 2022. Then, if renewable vitality era grows linearly from 31 EJ in 2022 to the STEPS goal for TFEC of 536 EJ in 2050, renewable vitality must develop at roughly eight occasions the baseline progress price to switch all fossil vitality by 2050. To attain the NZE goal, it must develop at roughly 5 occasions the baseline price. (See Desk 1.)

Desk 1: Will increase in progress price of renewable vitality (RE) wanted to substitute for all world fossil vitality consumption by 2050 for 3 demand situations, assuming in every both linear or exponential progress in RE

As linear progress of renewable vitality doesn’t look more likely to attain the STEPS or NZE targets, we subsequent take into account exponential progress. Within the STEPS case, to switch all fossil fuels by 2050, world renewable vitality must double each 6.8 years and preserve doubling, 4 occasions in complete. For NZE, the doubling time is 8 years with 3.5 doublings, which is healthier, however nonetheless formidable.

Even when it had been potential for the manufacture, set up and commissioning of wind and photo voltaic to attain the above exponential progress charges, demand can be restricted by the charges at which transportation and combustion heating might be electrified. There is no such thing as a level in growing provide extra quickly than demand. Globally, the electrification of transportation is in an early stage and the electrification of combustion heating has barely begun.

Getting SERIOUS

I’ve created a 3rd consumption situation, known as SERIOUS, during which TFEC decreases to half the 2022 degree, i.e. to 221 EJ, by 2050. Then, if renewable vitality era grows linearly over the identical interval, it should develop at 3 times its baseline price to switch all fossil vitality by 2050. Alternatively, if renewable vitality era grows exponentially, it should double each decade, 3 times in complete. If governments get SERIOUS in regards to the vitality transition, each the linear and exponential progress circumstances could also be potential.

Enhancements in vitality effectivity aren’t restricted to applied sciences equivalent to dwelling insulation, environment friendly home equipment and extra environment friendly industrial processes. Higher reductions in vitality consumption shall be achieved by effectivity good points from the electrification of transportation and the alternative of low-temperature combustion heating by warmth pumps. A number one analysis group on vitality situations, primarily based at LUT College in Finland, has estimated that complete vitality demand following full electrification could be halved.

Socioeconomic adjustments in addition to technical

Even the IEA recognises in STEPS that vitality effectivity enhancements could not obtain ample reductions in demand. The SERIOUS situation would nearly definitely require socioeconomic adjustments in addition to adjustments in particular person behaviour. These adjustments could also be vital to make sure that the potential reductions in vitality demand aren’t worn out by financial progress driving extreme progress in vitality consumption. Financial progress is pushed by progress in financial consumption per individual and inhabitants. Because the richest 10% of the worldwide inhabitants are responsible for half global greenhouse gas emissionsit’s the consumption per individual and inhabitants of the wealthy that needs to be of biggest concern.  The political obstacles to addressing this social inequity within the local weather disaster are substantial.

By Dr Mark DiesendorfHonorary Affiliate Professor in Setting & Society

BIO: Dr Mark Diesendorf has a BSc with firstclass honours in physics from the College of Sydney and a PhD in utilized arithmetic from UNSW. He’s at present Honorary Affiliate Professor within the College of Humanities & Languages, School of Arts, Design and Structure, UNSW Sydney. He teaches, researches and consults within the interdisciplinary fields of sustainable vitality, vitality coverage, idea of sustainability, ecological economics, and sensible processes by which authorities, enterprise and different organisations can obtain ecologically sustainable and socially simply improvement.

From 2004 to 2016 he was Affiliate Professor and Deputy Director of the Institute of Environmental Research, UNSW Sydney. His earlier positions embrace Principal Analysis Scientist in CSIRO within the Nineteen Eighties, senior lecturer in Human Ecology on the Australian Nationwide College (1994-1996), Professor of Environmental Science and Basis Director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures on the College of Know-how Sydney (1996-2001), Director of the personal consultancy Sustainability Centre Pty Ltd (2001-2007) and Schooling Program Chief of the Cooperative Analysis Centre for Low Carbon Dwelling from 2017 till it closed in June 2019.

Based mostly on his perception that science, expertise and economics ought to serve the group at giant, he has been at numerous occasions secretary of the Society for Social Accountability in Science (Canberra), co-founder and vice-president of the Sustainable Power Industries Council of Australia, co-founder and president of the unique Australasian Wind Power Affiliation, president of the Australia New Zealand Society for Ecological Economics (ANZSEE) and vice-president of Applicable Know-how for Neighborhood and Setting (APACE).

He’s co-editor of the interdisciplinary ebook Human Ecology, Human Economic system: Concepts for an Ecologically Sustainable Future (1997) and creator of Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy (UNSW Press, 2007), Climate Action: A Campaign Manual for Greenhouse Solutions (UNSW Press, 2009), Sustainable Energy Solutions for Climate Change (Routledge & UNSW Press, 2014) and lead creator of The Path to a Sustainable Civilisation: Technological, Socioeconomic and Political Change (Palgrave Macmillan, 2023).