The Electoral College & The Path Forward For America

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Within the first a part of our dialogue in regards to the Electoral Collegewe looked at its history. Now, let’s check out what it means for the way forward for America. Based on Heather Cox Richardsonon September 16, CNN senior information reporter Harry Enten wrote that whereas it’s “(p)retty clear that Kamala Harris is ahead nationally right now, her advantage in the battleground states is basically nil. Average it all, Harris’(s) chance of winning the popular vote is 70%, while her chance of winning the Electoral College is 50%.” Two days later, on September 18, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina skipped votes within the Senate to journey to Nebraska, the place he tried to persuade state legislators to modify the state’s system of allotting electoral votes by district to a winner-take-all system.

It’s all in regards to the Electoral Faculty. In American historical past, 4 presidents — all Republicans — have misplaced the favored vote and gained the White Home by means of the Electoral Faculty. Trump’s 2024 marketing campaign technique seems to be to do it once more (or to create such chaos that the election goes to the Home of Representatives, the place there’ll doubtless be extra Republican dominated delegations than Democratic ones). Within the 2024 election, Trump has proven little curiosity in courting voters, Richardson says. As a substitute, the marketing campaign has thrown its efforts into authorized challenges to voting and eking out a win within the Electoral Faculty. The variety of electoral votes equals the variety of senators and representatives to which every state is entitled (100 + 435) plus three electoral votes for Washington, D.C., for a complete of 538. A successful candidate should get a majority of these votes — 270.

Winner take all implies that presidential elections are gained in so-called swing or battleground states. These are states with election margins of lower than 3 factors — so shut they could possibly be gained by both occasion. The patterns of 2020 recommend that the states most probably to be in competition in 2024 are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Though, the Harris–Walz marketing campaign has opened up the map, suggesting its inner numbers present that states like Florida may additionally be in competition. Candidates and their political motion committees concentrate on these few swing states — touring, giving speeches and rallies, and pouring cash into promoting and floor operations.

A New Wrinkle

However in 2024 there’s a new wrinkle. The Structure’s framers agreed on a census each ten years in order that illustration in Congress could possibly be reapportioned based on demographic modifications. As normal, the 2020 census shifted illustration, and so the pathway to 270 electoral votes shifted barely. These shifts imply that it’s attainable the election will come down to 1 electoral vote. Awarding Trump the one electoral vote Nebraska is anticipated to ship to Harris could possibly be sufficient to maintain her from turning into president.

Reasonably than making an attempt to win a majority of voters, simply 49 days earlier than the presidential election, Trump supporters — together with Lindsey Graham — are making a determined effort to make use of the Electoral College to maintain Harris from reaching the requisite 270 electoral votes to win. It’s uncommon for a senator from one state to intervene within the election processes in one other state, however Graham equally pressured officers in Georgia to swing the vote there towards Trump in 2020.

The Framers properly understood that teams of individuals would attempt to manipulate the federal government to provide themselves an unfair benefit. As Richardson factors out, it’s not a North/South factor or a rural/city factor, it’s a energy journey factor. The urge to monopolize the facility of presidency is common. As Jimmy Buffett taught us years in the past, “Power is a dangerous drug. It can maim, it can kill.” I feel most of us would agree that it’s not good for the nation as an entire for any teams — Republicans, Democrats, or Pastafarians — to dominate the political course of.

It’s onerous to argue {that a} gadget — the Electoral Faculty — that was created to satisfy the wants of an agrarian society the place horses have been the first technique of transportation and journey from Chicago to Philadelphia may take per week — remains to be related at this time. No matter occurred to counting all of the votes? Whoever will get probably the most wins? Is there someplace within the Structure that claims rural voters, or southern voters, or individuals who like pineapple on their pizza ought to have a much bigger voice within the authorities than others?

There are many individuals who wish to abolish the Electoral Faculty. How would possibly the federal government of the USA be altered if we merely had majority rule? What if we adopted ranked selection voting that encourages extra folks to run for workplace with out worrying {that a} vote for them would possibly hurt the possibilities of one other candidate? Is “winning” extra necessary than governing?

The difficulty this Election Day is about democracy. Project 2025 will dismantle authorities as we all know it and place it within the palms of partisans who will perform the bidding of far proper radicals who need us to consider that crime is up when in truth it’s down and that refugees from Haiti are consuming our pets. The Republican playbook is to enchantment to our basest instincts and our best fears, notably in the case of race and sophistication. When did People get so frightened of their very own shadows that they could possibly be simply manipulated by charlatans?

An Finish To Trickle Down Economics

However there’s extra to it than that. Ever since Ronald Reagan, America has been in thrall to a lie known as trickle-down economics, which suggests wealthy individuals are higher capable of resolve what’s greatest for the nation than the federal government. That principle has made billionaires out of numerous folks, however are you able to identify the colleges, hospitals, bridges, roads, airports, and libraries constructed by Harlan Crow, Marc Andreeesen, Peter Thiel, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Leonard Leo, or Charles Koch? What historical past has proven us is that these greedheads wish to maintain all of it for themselves and to hell with everybody else.

Joe Biden, regardless of his faults, seeks to increase the wealth of all People, not only a favored few. At a speech to the Economics  Club of Washington, DC, final week, he contrasted his financial insurance policies, primarily based in the concept the financial system grows from the center out and the underside up, with these of former president Trump, whose insurance policies of tax cuts for the rich and companies are primarily based in the concept the financial system grows greatest when markets drive it and that concentrating wealth on the high of society permits people to take a position extra effectively than the federal government can. Biden famous that Trump’s insurance policies killed manufacturing jobs and noticed little or no manufacturing unit development, whereas creating the most important funds deficit in American historical past.

Biden listed these comparisons to make the purpose that, as he stated, “(f)or the past 40 years, too many leaders have sworn by an economic theory that has not worked very well at all: trickle-down economics. Cut taxes for the very wealthy … and hope the benefits trickle down. Well, guess what? Not a whole lot trickled down to my dad’s kitchen table. It’s clear, especially under my predecessor, that trickle-down economics failed. And he’s promised it again — trickle-down economics — but it will fail again.” He famous that since 1989, the US has created about 51 million jobs, and 50 million of them have come underneath Democratic presidents.

“I’m a capitalist,” Biden stated, “but I believe capitalism is the greatest force to grow the economy for everybody.” He known as for extra reasonably priced housing, reasonably priced childcare, and decrease healthcare prices, noting that these insurance policies will enhance financial progress. He known as for increased taxes on the very rich to pay for these pro-growth insurance policies and to chop the deficit. Kamala Harris will embrace Joe Biden’s legacy and increase on it shifting ahead.

This Election Day, you’ll be able to select to fatten the wallets of America’s richest residents or increase the financial alternatives of all People. And perhaps, simply perhaps, if we dwell by means of the chaos the MAGAlomaniacs have deliberate, we are able to begin a dialog about abolishing the Electoral Faculty and trusting the folks to manipulate, not tyrants beholden to elites. Isn’t that what the Framers of the Structure would have wished?