Clean technology mandates can slash prices and carbon emissions to spark cascade of positive tipping points

Governments can begin a worldwide cascade of “positive tipping points” to chop costs and carbon emissions through the use of mandates to change funding from polluting fossil fuels to wash applied sciences, in response to a new report launched at this time at Local weather Week NYC.

Researchers discovered that regulatory mandates with particular timeframes will guarantee clean technologies turn into cheaper than fossil gas options as much as three years earlier worldwide—lowering carbon emissions within the energy, transport and heating sectors by no less than 75% in 2050.

The report compares the effectiveness of regulatory mandates, subsidies and carbon taxes in additional than 70 nations to see which might most shortly result in constructive tipping factors when it comes to cheaper costs for customers, enabling clear applied sciences to outcompete fossil fuels in main emitting sectors.

The researchers examined 4 sectors: energy, heating, gentle street transport and heavy street transport.

They discovered regulatory mandates, that require producers in a sector to fulfill a rising share of gross sales from clear applied sciences or that section out essentially the most polluting fuels, had been the simplest method to attain tipping factors in all 4 sectors—and this elevated the prospect of cascades, the place change in every sector helps speed up the others.

The mandates the specialists assessed and advocate are:

• Section-out of coal energy by 2035 for developed nations and by 2045 for growing nations.
• Require a rising proportion of automotive gross sales to be zero-emission vehiclesreaching 100% by 2035.
• Require a rising proportion of truck gross sales to be zero emission automobiles, reaching 100% by 2040.
• Require a rising proportion of heating equipment gross sales to be warmth pumps from 2025, reaching 100% by 2035.

“With the world off course to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals, triggering positive tipping points is now the only credible way to limit global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,” mentioned co-author Professor Tim Lenton, from the International Methods Institute on the College of Exeter.

“We want a fast transformation in our economies and society that dramatically cuts costs and carbon emissions. Specializing in constructive tipping factors advantages customers, taxpayers, companies and other people around the globe going through the worst impacts of local weather change.

“Mandates are clearly the most effective policy approach—and we call on policymakers worldwide to implement them at speed. Failure to do so will have high human and economic costs.”

Co-author Simon Sharpe, Director of S-Curve Economics, a non-profit analysis group, mentioned, “Our findings present clear know-how mandates can convey ahead the tipping factors in 4 vital sectors considerably quicker than subsidies or carbon taxes.

“Mandates also provide certainty for businesses, investors and consumers, and if countries work together to implement them in a coordinated way, they will drive down clean technology costs even faster.”

The researchers used fashions that simulate how traders or customers select between applied sciences primarily based on availability, price and historic preferences.

“We found that policies to advance the low-carbon transition in any one of these sectors will help bring forward the tipping point in the other three,” mentioned Simon Sharpe.

“For example, increased use of clean electricity or energy storage in one sector drives innovation and brings down the cost of these technologies, enabling faster transitions in the other sectors. In addition, the increasing electrification of heating and transport provides new options for balancing the power system, reducing the cost of clean power.”

The paper additionally identifies “super-leverage points” with the best potential to set off cascades of constructive change.

Lead creator Dr. Femke Nijsse mentioned, “The zero-emission mandate for automobiles reveals the perfect potential for a ‘super-leverage level’ for the worldwide transition.

“This coverage not solely has the very best impact inside its personal sector, but additionally has a major constructive affect on the transition in different sectors.

“Coal power phaseout is also a super-leverage point, bringing forward positive tipping points in the heating and heavy road transport sectors by up to four years in some countries.”

The report is printed within the week that the UK will shut its final coal energy plant, being the primary G7 nation to section out coal energy, and assembly its dedication to take action a yr early.

Dr. Nijsse concludes: “Main economies ought to coordinate their actions to shift funding in world markets in direction of clear applied sciences, serving to extra nations make quicker progress in direction of the tipping factors the place clear applied sciences turn into cheaper than fossil fuels.

“In the power sector, the first such tipping point has already been passed—solar and wind power are cheaper forms of electricity generation than burning coal or gas in most of the world—and the rate of progress is dramatic. And the faster the transition, the earlier countries can reap the benefits of cheaper energy—economically, socially and environmentally.”

The report is titled “A positive tipping cascade in power, transport and heating” and appears at information from over 70 nations, together with the entire main carbon emitters. The report launches at Local weather Week NYC on Monday 23 September 2024 in partnership with Local weather Group.

Helen Clarkson, CEO of Local weather Group, mentioned, “We’re in the age of urgency—we need bold, real-world action to push the transition into the mainstream. This positive tipping points report perfectly aligns with what Climate Group has been doing in its initiatives with corporates: accelerating climate action to tip the balance in favor of the planet. The report shows a clear path and policy approach to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.”