Tesla (TSLA) Still Worth More Than Toyota, Porsche, Mercedes, & Hyundai Combined

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Tesla’s inventory value and market cap are down significantly this 12 months, on the again of barely drooping gross sales (as an alternative of fifty% progress 12 months over 12 months), rumors of the extra reasonably priced Tesla being canceled, and a sluggish Cybertruck (and Semi) ramp-up. Tesla Full Self Driving (Supervised) has improved tremendously with model 12, however there are nonetheless broad issues that it’s removed from robotaxi functionality (Elon Musk appears to disagree, however he has seemingly disagreed for about 8 years, since 2016). Nonetheless, there may be nonetheless a variety of religion in Tesla’s continued progress, in Tesla AI, in Tesla robotics, and in Tesla typically — particularly on Wall Avenue.

Don’t consider me on that final half? Simply have a look at the very fact within the headline: Tesla nonetheless has a market cap that’s bigger than that of the three subsequent most respected automakers mixed, and you may even throw in Hyundai or Kia or varied different automakers and Tesla continues to be at the next market cap.

If you wish to take a extra American perspective, Tesla is price greater than Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW, BYD, Hyundai, and Kia mixed. That’s a reasonably wild comparability. TSLA > Ford + GM + Stellantis + Honda + Volkswagen + BMW + BYD + Hyundai + Kia. That has to imagine that Tesla gross sales rebound and get again to rising at an enormous clip whereas these different automakers’s gross sales stagnate and even shrink, or it has to imagine insane future income and income from AI, robotics, or unicorn kisses.

One of many inventory tales of the previous decade is how a lot TSLA ran up and up and up the inventory charts. Because it did so, the arguments above have been made in numerous varieties, and we revealed views on these issues repeatedly whereas monitoring Tesla’s rise. So, these factors are nothing new, however there’s now a bit extra of a query of the place Tesla gross sales are going. And there’s all the time the query of what the long run really brings, particularly with regards to large unknowns like AI, robotaxis, and new robotics.

Although, all of that stated, I’ve to confess that I’ve a tough time in the mean time seeing Tesla as being price greater than Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW, BYD, Hyundai, and Kia mixed. These automakers have began to affect to a big diploma, have their very own R&D packages, and have many loyal clients sticking with them. Tesla’s path to 50% gross sales progress a 12 months has turn into nebulous, unclear, and even regarding — and that’s only for the subsequent couple of years, not to mention the subsequent 5 or 6. Past that, it’s exhausting for me to see Tesla’s FSD method being profitable anytime quickly, if ever. With all of that being the case, the imbalance on the inventory market will get extra questionable, fragile, and troublesome to see sustaining.

I might be incorrect. Many have been incorrect up to now on Tesla and TSLA. However I noticed clear causes to consider in Tesla’s path to 2020, and even to 2023. I wrote about it for years (since 2012) and mainly anticipated what got here to go would come to go. Wanting ahead, it’s way more troublesome to really feel comfy with large progress plans and unprecedented AI enabling unprecedented income. We will see. Within the meantime, although, the info and chart above make me nervous for anybody closely invested within the TSLA dream, and make me suppose a crash might be coming.