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Responding to an article yesterday in regards to the potential impact of repealing the US EV tax credit score, certainly one of our readers offered a terrific, lengthy touch upon a subject I’ve been which means to cowl for months. The “fun with numbers” half is correct on the finish. Try the comment below from Tom Storey and luxuriate in! —Zach
EV adoption has been underway for some years now. The adoption wave consists of two components … the decline of IC (inside combustion) gross sales, which is the primary measurable, after which, the adoption of EVs. Within the US to this point, the adoption wave is unbroken. Gasoline automobile gross sales declines started in 2018 and proceed. EV gross sales progress is totally underway within the US, and at a better price globally. All producers in every single place try to handle the transition, as they too are finding out the adoption wave. Shoppers are surprisingly predictable in these issues … look it up.
Once more, it’s best to review the decline of the legacy product, even when it isn’t practically as a lot enjoyable as studying the media discuss in regards to the short-term collapses and surges of EV gross sales, which imply nothing within the 12 month cycle.
Authorities incentives actually aren’t a lot of an element until you wish to borrow some “future sales” for immediately. $40,000+ on a brand new automobile is some huge cash and folk don’t care who the president is or what’s going on within the circus once they purchase a automobile. I’ll admit that for 100 years, there was a measurable within the automobile business….
New mannequin introductions with colours and new wheels and the like was found as a gross sales booster by Alfred Sloan and Common Motors within the ’20s and ’30s.
As of immediately, we appear to have 71 new EV fashions obtainable at new automobile dealerships and web sites nationwide. By the fourth quarter of of 2026, there shall be 12 new fashions added to this tally. Which means we shall be listening to a few new BEV mannequin about each 6 weeks over the following 18 months or so. That is how the legacy product is buried, and gross sales statistics affirm this.
US combustion automobile gross sales in 2018 — 17.4M
US combustion automobile gross sales in 2024 — 14.45M
EU combustion automobile gross sales in 2018 — 15.6M
EU combustion automobile gross sales in 2024 — 11.5M
By Tom Storey
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