Tesla Sales Crash 13%, Tesla Stock Rises 5% — Why?

Join daily news updates from CleanTechnica on electronic mail. Or follow us on Google News!

Final Up to date on: third April 2025, 12:26 am

Clearly, as with anybody else “explaining” why a inventory unexpectedly rose or dropped on any given day, I can’t provide you with any definitive reply. Nonetheless, let’s give it a fast shot, together with some ideas on the potential causes.

To begin with, word that Tesla delivered 336,681 automobiles final quarter, which is a 13% lower 12 months over 12 months (YoY). Usually talking, within the enterprise world, declining 13% YoY shouldn’t be seen as an excellent factor. With a “growth stock company” like Tesla, the place gross sales are alleged to be rising 50% a 12 months, that ought to actually, actually not be an excellent factor. Nonetheless, following the gross sales information, the worth of Tesla inventory (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose 5% at this time. There are a number of potential explanations for this.

1) Maybe inventory merchants anticipated a good worse gross sales report, and thus purchased inventory on the information that it was “only” a 13% year-over-year drop in gross sales. To me, that appears a bit unlikely and beneficiant by itself, because the inventory worth has not dropped sufficient because the goal was 50% development a 12 months to make this make sense. Even only one 12 months in the past, Elon Musk stated they anticipated Tesla gross sales to extend in 2024. Gross sales didn’t improve, they decreased, and now they’ve even decreased significantly greater than they did final 12 months, however Tesla’s inventory worth is up 68% in comparison with a 12 months in the past. Make it make sense.

2) Another excuse that has been floated is that Musk is reportedly going to be leaving Washington, D.C., and his DOGE work quickly so as to focus extra on Tesla once more. It appears folks suppose that’s an excellent factor for Tesla and are treating that information as a “buy” signal. To me, a) it looks as if a manufactured distraction greater than something in response to the poor Tesla gross sales figures, b) it’s not clear how Musk is anticipated to assist Tesla whereas spending extra time within the workplace once more, and c) why has it been okay and mainly written off that Musk has been “phoning it in” at Tesla for a very long time? Was there sufficient of a transfer downward from Musk’s political distractions to have the inventory get a bump of this dimension from the information that he may be returning to work in a number of months?

3) The market is bullish that the brand new Mannequin Y is ramping up, that gross sales didn’t take extra of successful whereas retooling and getting ready the manufacturing strains for that, and since merchants suppose there shall be sufficient demand for the brand new Mannequin Y to get a giant gross sales rebound and get speedy development going once more. Nonetheless, there’s phrase on the road that the backlog of demand in China is already burned up (which might be a catastrophe for the corporate) and there aren’t any robust indications that the brand new Mannequin Y bump shall be greater than a bit of blip of assist. It is perhaps extra, however we don’t actually have proof of that proper now.

Effectively, there’s yet one more risk. That will be the truth that there are thousands and thousands of Elon Musk followers who suppose the corporate and inventory can solely go up, so any drop within the inventory worth needs to be capitalized on ASAP by “buying the dip.” That really appears to work to some extent and for a while interval, but when gross sales proceed to disappoint, actuality will meet up with the corporate and the market will ultimately reply. As I defined just lately, Tesla may be a meme stockhowever the hype round that meme can final for hours, and even days and weeks.

We’ll see what occurs within the coming days and weeks as extra knowledge comes out, however the first quarter numbers don’t look good — until you ask the inventory market.