Where Switzerland’s power will come from in 2050

By 2050, the purpose is for Switzerland’s vitality system to be decarbonized and not reliant on nuclear energy. How this may be achieved and the prices of doing so are set out in a new report by a Swiss analysis consortium involving researchers from ETH Zurich, the schools of Geneva and Bern, EPFL, WSL, and ZHAW.

The objective is for Switzerland’s vitality provide to be carbon-neutral by 2050. This can require the electrification of transport, heating and trade, elevating the annual electrical energy demand from the present degree of 56 terawatt-hours (TWh) to round 75 TWh by 2050. On the identical time, the contribution of 23 TWh from the Swiss nuclear energy vegetation will must be changed.

A brand new report by the Candy-consortium exterior pageEDGE units out the primary complete investigation of how the energy transition could be carried out by 2050. The report encompasses a number of research, which had been carried out with the participation of researchers from ETH Zurich, EPFL and WSL, the Universities of Geneva and Bern, and the ZHAW.

Considerably extra electrical energy from wind and solar

On 9 June 2024, 69% of Swiss voters authorised the Electrical energy Act, which stipulates that, by 2050, Switzerland is to fulfill some 60% of its electricity demand (45 TWh per yr) from new renewable vitality sources comparable to photovoltaics, wind energy or biomass.

Within the first examine of the report, the researchers established that there are numerous routes by which Switzerland can attain the 45 TWh goal. Nevertheless, it will require large enlargement of photovoltaics and wind vitality. Of the 45 TWh of electrical energy, a median of some 28 TWh would come from photovoltaic techniques, 13 TWh from wind generators, and the remaining from biomass.

On common, the put in capability of photovoltaics in Switzerland would want to develop from 6.4 gigawatts (GW) at the moment to some 26.8 GW in 2050—a four-fold improve. Within the case of wind vitality, which is significant to electricity generation in winter, a a lot larger enlargement could be wanted. Particularly, capability would want to extend from a median of 0.1 GW at the moment to some 8.4 GW in 2050—over 80 instances the present determine.

“This major expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy by 2050 is almost inconceivable without effective subsidies,” says Giovanni Sansavini, Professor of Reliability and Threat Engineering at ETH Zurich and one of many examine’s co-authors.

Limiting web imports could be costly

The Electrical energy Act additionally stipulates that electrical energy web imports in winter should not exceed 5 TWh. If carried out strictly, this rule will necessitate considerably extra home-grown energy.

Certainly, in keeping with the researchers’ fashions, there will probably be a necessity for 80% extra capability from wind farms, 11% extra capability from gas-fired energy stations, and 10% extra capability from solar energy vegetation. Furthermore, the prices of supplying electrical energy, that are principally made up of funding and working prices, might improve by a fifth, and the value of electrical energy might greater than double.

Reliance on the European electrical energy market

In future, the EU might reserve 70% of its community capability for commerce between EU member states. The researchers subsequently additionally mannequin how a 70% discount of cross-border electrical energy buying and selling quantity would impression the electrical energy combine and the electrical energy provide prices.

They conclude that the put in capability of wind generators in Switzerland would want to extend by an extra 20% with a view to soak up a 70% discount of cross-border electrical energy buying and selling quantity. Moreover, the electrical energy provide prices would improve by 8% in such a situation.

“Our results provide an impressive demonstration of how important it is for Switzerland to be seamlessly integrated into the European electricity market. Without integration, not only the cost of supplying electricity but also the electricity itself will become more expensive. It’s also clear that we need more wind turbines,” explains Ambra Van Liedekerke, a doctoral scholar in Sansavini’s group and one of many examine’s co-authors.

In accordance with a consultant survey carried out by the Edge analysis consortium, round 60% of the Swiss inhabitants are in favor of nearer cooperation with the EU with a view to safe vitality provides. On the identical time, nevertheless, round 70% of the roughly 2,000 individuals surveyed mentioned that Switzerland must be impartial in vitality issues and that electrical energy imports are unpopular in comparison with home vitality sources.

Swiss investments move in another country

The outcomes of one other examine within the report reveal simply how carefully the Swiss vitality system is interconnected financially with Europe: over half of all annual investments by Swiss electrical energy suppliers and monetary buyers in renewable utility-scale vitality initiatives now move to different European international locations. These initiatives are powerplants with a capability of over one megawatt. Just one% of those investments stay in Switzerland.

Essentially the most cash goes to Germany ($177 million a yr on common), France ($112 million a yr on common) and Italy ($43 million a yr on common), and Swiss backers moreover make investments $644 million exterior of Europe. It’s putting that just about 60% of this Swiss cash goes in the direction of wind vitality initiatives.

“As it seems, investors tend to finance renewable energy projects in foreign countries that they couldn’t implement on the same scale in Switzerland. In this way, Switzerland is contributing to the energy transition beyond its own borders,” explains Bjarne Steffen, head of the Local weather Finance and Coverage Group at ETH Zurich and one of many co-authors of the report.

The price of web zero for Switzerland

A 3rd examine from the EDGE report fashions how costly it may very well be for the Swiss inhabitants to realize the net-zero goal within the Paris Local weather Settlement. The researchers assume that fossil vitality costs and the manufacturing prices of many items will rise by 2050 on account of carbon taxes and emissions buying and selling. This could additionally make many on a regular basis services and products comparable to housing, vitality, but in addition meals and mobility dearer.

Swiss households could be affected by lower income and better costs between 2020 and 2050 and will eat much less in consequence. The extent of this loss is determined by local weather safety efforts overseas. If solely Europe turns into local weather impartial by 2050, the transition might price the typical Swiss family 0.63% of its consumption per yr.

Nevertheless, if all OECD international locations obtain web zero by 2050, China by 2060 and the remainder of the world by 2070, the extra slowdown of financial development might increase the fee to 0.75% of the annual consumption of a Swiss family.

The truth that these prices will not be larger is determined by whether or not Switzerland can offset its emissions overseas. If that isn’t doable, the fee might rise to 1% per yr and family. “When interpreting these costs, it’s always important to bear in mind that the costs of unchecked CO₂ emissions would probably be much higher,” says Philippe Thalmann, Professor of Economics at EPFL and one of many report’s co-authors.