EVs Take 91.0% Share In Norway — Volvo EX30 Grabs Top Spot

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The auto market noticed plugin EVs take 91.0% share in Norway in April, roughly flat from 91.1% 12 months on 12 months. BEVs alone took 89.4% share, up from 83.3% YoY. General auto quantity was 11,241 models, up 25% YoY, a restoration over current months. April’s greatest promoting BEV was the Volvo EX30.

April’s gross sales knowledge noticed mixed EVs take 91.0% share in Norway, comprising 89.4% full electrics (BEVs), and 1.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These examine with YoY figures of 91.1% mixed, 83.3% BEV and 7.8% PHEV.

The policy changes from January 1st are actually limiting PHEV gross sales, and have given an additional enhance to BEV gross sales. An unlucky facet impact is that HEVs at the moment are promoting nearly 3× greater than PHEVs, which isn’t any form of win. Why not? PHEVs may be pushed on electrical energy alone more often than not (when used as designed), whereas HEVs must derive all their power from combustion.

There’s additionally probably a residual hangover impact for PHEVs, which had a powerful pull-forward forward of the January 1st modifications (see graph beneath). The hangover might cross within the coming few months and see PHEVs and HEVs extra balanced. If not, tweaks to the coverage dials could also be required.

However, BEVs now account for 90% of the auto market 12 months so far, and all different powertrains are on the best way out. Petrol-only gross sales are particularly weak, with beneath 1% of the market to date in 2024. Diesel-only share is round 2.5% of the market YTD.

Finest Promoting BEVs

Having launched again in January, the brand new Volvo EX30 has had an excellent climb, and reached the highest spot in April, with 1,095 models offered.

The Volkswagen ID.4 took second place with 963 models, and the ID.3 got here in third with 733 models.

I’ve to apologise for not itemizing the Volvo EX30 in Norway’s outcome beforehand, because it in truth debuted in Norway in January (with 87 models and the twelfth spot). My supply knowledge didn’t decide up on its preliminary gross sales till now, so I used to be additionally in the dead of night.

That omission is now corrected, so let’s fill within the lacking knowledge — it offered 213 models in February (sixth spot), and 344 models in March (third spot).

Now in 1st place, that is an astonishingly quick rise for the brand new Volvo compact SUV. It’s priced from NOK 321,900 (€27,500) for the bottom 49 kWh battery variant, with the bigger battery choice (64 kWh usable) priced from NOK 366,900 (€31,300).

This undercuts the value of the highly regarded Hyundai Kona, which has been in (or near) Norway’s prime 10 since 2018. The Kona that comes with a carefully matched 65.4 kWh battery has an MSRP of NOK 388,900 (€33,200). The Kona is now (after the 2024 refresh) the marginally bigger of the 2 (4355 mm vs 4233 mm), nonetheless, and has about 8% extra actual world vary.

And but, the EX30 is quicker on lengthy journeys due to a lot quicker DC charging, with 10% to 80% in simply 25 minutes (vs 41 minutes for the Kona). Additionally it is much more highly effective, even out-accelerating the bottom Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y, with a 0 to 100 km/h time of 5.3 seconds (or 5.7 seconds for the 49 kWh variant). What’s to not like?

Getting again to April’s prime 20 rankings, each the ID.3 and the ID.4 (and to some extent the Audi This fall, and Skoda Enyaq) recovered from a unusually quiet first quarter for the Volkswagen Group MEB fashions.

There have been a number of new BEV fashions debuting in April. The Good #3 noticed 5 models registered, its first since a single unit had appeared in February. The Good #3 shares a platform with the Volvo EX30, however is bigger and dearer.

One other debut mannequin was the Mini Countryman, with 17 preliminary models (for fundamental specs, see the Sweden report).

Lastly, two BYD fashions got here to Norway in April, a number of months after showing elsewhere in Europe. These are the BYD Seal (49 models), and the BYD Dolphin (49 models). The Seal is a Tesla Mannequin 3 rival, whereas the Dolphin is an MG4 rival. These are comparatively good worth BEVs, and are enormous sellers in China, so let’s see how they get on.

Let’s investigate cross-check the trailing 3 month chart:

Regardless of its comparatively low quantity in April, the Tesla Mannequin Y remains to be vastly dominant in Norway over the long run, and that is unlikely to vary a lot this 12 months. It nearly matches the gross sales of the following 3 hottest fashions mixed.

The Volvo EX30 has already taken the second place behind the Tesla, and shortly these two can be a very good hole away from the followers.

Word the Volkswagen ID. Buzz is now in 4th place after a powerful April. This can be a exceptional efficiency for a big MPV, and is helped by its comparatively low pricing in Norway in comparison with all different markets. It’s accessible from NOK 618,100 (€52,800), whereas the MSRP in different components of Europe is often over 20% extra (e.g. Germany, €64,600).

Fleet Replace

Right here’s the newest fleet transition chart, now up to date to incorporate the Q1 2024 knowledge:

We are able to see that Norway’s fleet transition to plugins is slowing, due to the decelerate in new auto gross sales over the previous 12 months or so. This received’t change till the financial state of affairs recovers (dialogue beneath).

Over Q1 2024, the BEV share of the fleet grew from 24.2% to 24.8%, only a 0.6% change. Mixed with PHEVs, total plugin share grew from 31.4% to 32.0%, additionally a 0.6% change (with PHEV gross sales being negligible throughout Q1).

This can be a great distance from the halcyon days of 2021, when the fleet transition to plugins was occurring at a charge of 1.4% per quarter in some intervals, and shut to five% per 12 months total.

Outlook

Norway’s auto business affiliation, the OFVfactors to nationwide financial components enjoying a job within the common slowdown of the auto market. We don’t but have Q1 2024 knowledge on Norway’s GDP, although January was better than current months. The data for Q4 2023 confirmed 0.5% YoY progress, from unfavorable 1.9% in Q3. Inflation improved to three.9% in March (newest knowledge) from 4.5% in February. Rates of interest have been flat at 4.5% since December. Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.4 factors in April, from 50.7 in March.

The OFV acknowledged that “People have a more strained economy… We now show greater moderation and buy smaller and more affordable new cars… We will probably have to wait until the first interest rate cut before optimism returns to new car buyers” (OFV April statementmachine translated).

What are your ideas on Norway’s EV progress? What must occur now to satisfy the aspirational purpose of 100% zero emission by 2025 — is it nonetheless doable? Please be part of within the dialogue beneath.