Statistical physics and network science reveal factors behind 2021–2022 energy crisis in Europe

An power disaster hit Europe in 2021–2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which despatched electrical energy costs skyrocketing—even inside international locations that do not depend on Russian fuel. It begs the query: Was there extra to it?

A group of researchers from the Institute for Vitality and Local weather Analysis at Forschungszentrum Jülich, the College of Cologne, and the Norwegian College of Life Sciences had already been working with electrical energy worth information for years, exploring statistics and growing forecasting strategies. Adopting a European perspective, they zeroed in on how costs in numerous international locations relate and the way international locations had been affected by the power disaster.

Within the journal Chaos the group addresses the interdependencies of various markets.

“We use an empirical approach to these topics and complement modeling efforts by economists,” stated Dirk Witthaut, a professor of community science for the Institute for Vitality and Local weather Analysis at Forschungszentrum Jülich and the College of Cologne.

This strategy combines statistical physics and network sciencewhich “provide very useful tools to study questions well beyond the traditional realm of physics,” stated Witthaut. “The biggest step is to see the connections.”

First, the researchers determine communities—teams of European international locations whose markets are strongly correlated. Then, they determine the elemental spatiotemporal patterns throughout the electrical energy worth/time information from all international locations. The thrilling half for the researchers was how these constructions and patterns modified through the power disaster.

The group seen Russian pure fuel and skyrocketing electrical energy costs had been ceaselessly attributed to the hovering fuel costs, whereas different components had been concurrently at play with impacts that shouldn’t be underestimated.

“Remarkably, France and southern Norway noticed the strongest enhance in electricity prices—though they don’t depend on Russian fuel for electric power plants,” stated Witthaut. “The high unavailability of nuclear power plants in France and the operation of new interconnectors from Norway to the continent surely played a role.”

The group discovered that when the energy crisis shook European electrical energy markets, the constructions and patterns throughout the electrical energy worth information modified in quite a lot of methods.

“Our results emphasize that a national perspective on electricity systems can be quite misleading,” he stated. “Europe’s electric power system is highly integrated, which is overall highly beneficial for the customers.”

The researchers hope their work will strengthen the European perspective within the political debate about electrical energy markets and costs, as a result of issues like this are finest tackled through worldwide cooperation. They count on instant impacts throughout the subject of electrical energy worth forecasting.

“Most scientists solely have a look at one nationwide markethowever the interactions with different international locations should not be uncared for,” stated Witthaut. “We’ll get accurate forecasts only if we model all countries together.”

The following step for the group is to maneuver past analyzing correlations to figuring out trigger and results.

“There’s an intensive debate about how changes in our electricity mix affect prices and costs,” stated Witthaut.

“How does the rise of renewable power affect market prices? How important are nuclear power plants for the market? We can’t answer these questions by a simple correlation analysis. Instead, we need statistical tools that can quantify causal effects.”