Mexico EV Sales Report: 90% Growth YoY in June Brings EV Market Share to 2.5%!

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House to the most important and best auto business in Latin America, Mexico was a latecomer to the electrification race, presenting marginal EV gross sales till late 2021 (with sub-0.1% BEV market share). Again then, this was a PHEV-focused market, with plug-in hybrids at the very least capable of make some presence, and BEVs all however absent from the market. See the next chart for 2021–2022:

The final three years have introduced constant development YoY for EVs (~100% annually). Although, it’s BEV gross sales which have exploded (400% development in 2022, 300% in 2023) whereas PHEV gross sales have grown by a lot much less (~25% development in 2022 and 2023). EV development stays excessive in 2024, and with Mexico changing into an area the place Chinese language EV makers will struggle established US producers, it undoubtedly stays one of the crucial fascinating markets to observe.

Basic Market Overview

Thus far, 2024 has introduced constant development in EV gross sales, not solely YoY, but additionally month on month — March, Could and June all introduced new information within the nation.

Market-share smart, Mexico lags the regional leaders (Costa Rica and Uruguay) and the “second tier” markets (Colombia and Brazil), nevertheless it’s nonetheless an vital participant, having simply surpassed 2.5% share (2% for BEVs alone) in June, up from 1.2% a 12 months in the past.

It’s clear from this graph that PHEV gross sales are nearly fixed, and though they did improve YoY, this was as a result of they fell in H1 2023:

We Don’t Know The Market Leaders … However We Can Guess

There was a difficulty when engaged on this report: we don’t know who’s main the Mexican market.

The knowledge introduced by Mexico’s official establishments solely tracks mannequin gross sales by producers who’ve joined the Mexican Automotive Business Affiliation … and the seemingly leaders of the market (Tesla, BYD, and maybe SEV) don’t belong to it. Because of this though we have now entry to combination knowledge on EV gross sales, we solely have particular knowledge for fashions from the opposite producers.

Checking that very lengthy listing and on the lookout for all of the EVs that conceal in there, we discovered that the Volvo EX30 has been an unsurprising success, registering 1,561 models in the course of the first six months of 2023. JAC additionally has a few first rate promoting fashions (the E-Sunray van, with 1,001 gross sales, and the reasonably priced E10X, with 874 gross sales), adopted by the ORA 03 (517 gross sales) and the Renault Kwid E-Tech (250 gross sales). The presence of China on this listing is simple even with out BYD!

There’s extra data we will guess with the out there knowledge. Complete BEV gross sales throughout 2024 have amounted to simply over 12,000 models, but I solely managed to trace half of them within the listing in relation to fashions: which means BYD, Tesla, and SEV personal half of the Mexican EV Market. And though SEV has been making an effort to become a recognized brand in Mexico, I doubt it’s a giant participant but. This mainly implies that BYD and Tesla, collectively, are prone to have at the very least 5,000 registrations thus far this 12 months, and maybe slightly extra. I’d wager that above all, the EVs beforehand listed lie beneath the BYD Seagull, Tesla Mannequin 3, Tesla Mannequin Y, and BYD Music (most likely in that order).

Eventually, it’s fascinating to notice the absence of Hyundai/Kia on this listing. The Hyundai Kona is absent altogether, the Kia Niro is barely offered as an HEV, and the EV6 and Ioniq 5 have fewer than 60 gross sales every. Kia is planning EV manufacturing in Mexico within the close to future: might or not it’s that it’s ready for native manufacturing to not cannibalize its present factories within the nation?

Mexico Ramping Up EV Manufacturing

Mexico is maybe the one nation on the earth the place gross sales knowledge by mannequin will not be available, however car manufacturing knowledge is. Because of this though we can not current the market leaders so far as registrations go, we do have some fascinating knowledge relating to EV manufacturing thus far this 12 months:

A lot has been mentioned about Chinese language manufacturers coming to provide on Mexican soil, nevertheless it’s clear for now Mexico stays the turf of US manufacturers, particularly Ford and GM. The growing older Ford Mustang Mach-E is the chief so far as manufacturing goes, however practically 100% of those went to the US or elsewhere (solely 72 have been offered in Mexico); the Ultium siblings observe carefully behind (with no registrations in Mexico) … and in a distant fourth place, there’s the JAC E-Sunray van.

Mexican manufacturing is set initially by US demand, so not a lot may be learn into this knowledge relating to Mexico particularly. Nonetheless, as one of many most important manufacturing hubs in all the Americas, Mexican manufacturing can be utilized as a proxy to search out out what’s happening in different markets, primarily — however not solely — the US.

An fascinating distinction seems between the ramp-up of the Ultium siblings (Blazer and Equinox EV) and the declining manufacturing of the Mustang Mach-E. The previous are purported to develop into the cornerstone of the Ultium ramp-up for Basic Motors and can begin gross sales in Mexico within the following months. Manufacturing peaked in April, however June wasn’t far behind, and, if gross sales sustain, we should always see even bigger numbers within the months to return. I’ve mentioned it earlier than, nevertheless it bears repeating: I’ve excessive hopes for the Equinox EV within the Latin American market.

(Oh, and don’t let October’s knowledge idiot you. The Blazer had been in manufacturing since early 2023 — Chevrolet merely registered a whole semester’s manufacturing in that one month, and therefore the excessive quantity.)

In the meantime, the Mach-E has been affected by some critical blues, and manufacturing these days falls far beneath its peak a 12 months in the past. It frankly surprises me that after a 4-year ramp-up, Ford appears to be unable to each make a revenue on this car and promote it at a value that brings sufficient demand to maintain mass manufacturing. If (and this can be a huge if) GM manages to get a revenue on the Ultium siblings by late 2024, as Ibarra say they’d, it means the corporate can have managed to do in two years what Ford couldn’t do in 4.

Following our listing, so far as JAC goes, its manufacturing provides most of Latin America’s demand for this model, that means each the E-Sunray and the E10X are essentially the most demanded fashions south of the Rio Bravo (whereas the E-Sei 4 and others appears to be on their method out). This suits the knowledge out there in different markets … and admittedly surprises me: the E-Sei 4 (E40X in some markets) is one hell of a handsome CUV.

Eventually, it appears Jeep is beginning manufacturing of the Wagoneer. I’m not a fan of very massive SUVs, however each EV out there may be one much less ICE car, so I want this large Jeep one of the best of luck. Could you eat the market share of your gasoline-thirsty brothers!

Remaining Ideas

Mexico departed from a low base, nevertheless it’s been rising for a very long time now, sufficient to say this can be a constant development. Extra importantly, in addition to YoY development, there was development month on month, which suggests the arrival of reasonably priced EVs is making a distinction and we’re seeing a relentless improve in curiosity.

Nonetheless, 2.5% continues to be too low, and notably so for a market as massive as Mexico. Inertia is a robust pressure, and whereas some smaller markets could change a lot sooner, I’ve my doubts Mexico shall be in a position to take action earlier than important EV manufacturing ramps up within the nation. The excellent news is: that second shouldn’t be too far-off.